Price Trends

A notable decline in costs drove the market price level for polyester staple fiber downward last week (June 15–21). According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic average market price for polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) stood at 7,539 RMB/ton as of June 21, marking a 3.65% drop from the beginning of the week.

Market analysis

International oil prices have trended downward; as of the 17th, the settlement price for the July contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $76.79 per barrel, while the settlement price for the August contract of Brent crude futures was $79.55 per barrel. Expectations regarding U.S.-Iran reconciliation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continue to gain traction, likely leading to a further unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium; consequently, oil prices are expected to remain volatile with a bearish bias as the market weighs the pace of the shipping lane's reopening against the timing of actual increases in crude oil supply.

The domestic PTA market trended downward last week. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the average spot price of PTA in East China stood at 6,116 RMB/ton as of June 21, marking a 5.51% decline from the beginning of the week. Regarding supply, Dushan Energy’s No. 1 unit (with a capacity of 2.5 million tonnes) restarted on June 15, bringing the industry operating rate to approximately 87%. With expectations of maintenance shutdowns at the end of the month leading to a contraction in supply, combined with the anticipated restart of downstream polyester units, industry inventories continued to decline, providing support for market prices.

On the demand side, the collapse in costs—compounded by the off-season for end-market items such as heat-resistant apparel and home textiles—has hindered shipments from downstream yarn mills, leading to successive price cuts. With insufficient orders, yarn mills are seeing a gradual buildup of finished yarn inventory. A strong wait-and-see sentiment prevails regarding raw material procurement; spinners and traders are reluctant to stock up in advance, and transactions are driven primarily by immediate, essential needs.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that while the market is currently grappling with weakening costs and persistently sluggish demand during the off-season, the scope for a sharp decline is limited; this is because losses in polyester staple fiber and yarn production are forcing output cuts, and manufacturers are proactively controlling supply to support prices.

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