According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, prices for softwood pulp have recently trended downward with some volatility, while hardwood pulp prices have shown slight resilience, though both have experienced a narrow decline. On June 22, the average market price for softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,966.67 RMB/ton, a 0.33% decrease from the average on June 14. On the same day, the average market price for hardwood pulp in Shandong was 4,500 RMB/ton, down 0.37% from June 14.
Regarding supply: Overseas quotes for softwood pulp have softened and declined as producers actively lower prices to boost shipments; meanwhile, low-priced Russian softwood pulp continues to flow into the domestic market. Lower import costs have created room for domestic softwood pulp prices to fall further. In contrast, overseas quotes for hardwood pulp remain stable, with supply relatively tighter. Domestic pulp imports in May saw only a slight month-on-month decline, and overseas shipment volumes to China remained steady; a concentration of arrivals in mid-June has ensured ample spot market supply.
During this period, inventory levels at major pulp ports shifted from accumulation to depletion. As of June 18, 2026, sampled inventory at China's major pulp ports stood at 2.328 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons (0.3%) from the previous period. Inventory at Qingdao Port—a key domestic hub—declined, with the average daily outflow rate remaining largely unchanged from the previous period. Conversely, inventory at Changshu Port increased, though outflow volumes remained stable at over 80,000 tons. Demand Side:
The traditional off-season for the papermaking industry persists, with demand varying across paper grades. Demand for cultural paper has weakened significantly, driving prices to historic lows and causing losses for paper mills; consequently, mills have voluntarily reduced operating rates and cut back on softwood pulp purchases. The continued decline in softwood pulp consumption has become a key bearish factor suppressing prices. While demand for white paperboard (packaging grade) remains relatively stable, the industry suffers from overall overcapacity and razor-thin profit margins on finished paper. Mills are cautious about raw material stocking—providing only slight support for hardwood pulp—which is insufficient to reverse the generally weak market trend. Downstream procurement strategies focus on zero active restocking and the depletion of existing finished product inventories. With mill raw material inventories remaining low, market transactions are limited to sporadic orders driven by immediate needs, lacking the sustained buying interest required to prop up pulp prices.
Futures Market: Recently, pulp futures prices have exhibited a trend of weak fluctuation, characterized by initial rallies followed by pullbacks. As of June 22, 2026, the opening, closing, and high prices for the dominant pulp futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) were 4,870 RMB/tonne, 4,818 RMB/tonne, and 4,888 RMB/tonne, respectively; trading volume stood at 161,700 lots, with open interest at 330,600 lots.
Analysts at SunSirs (100ppi) believe that the destocking process at ports remains slow, making it difficult to quickly alleviate the pressure of high inventory levels. With the papermaking off-season continuing, mill operating rates show no significant rebound, and procurement remains limited to immediate needs. Given the potential for further downward adjustments in overseas softwood pulp offer prices and the continued decline in import costs, pulp prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate weakly in the short term.
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