On June 22, the domestic coking coal market operated with general stability. According to SunSirs' monitoring system, the SunSirs coking coal price index stood at 1,911.25 RMB/ton as of June 22, marking a 17.08% increase since the beginning of the month.
Regarding supply: The recovery of supply has fallen short of expectations. As of June 18, the capacity utilization rate for coking coal stood at 71.2%, up 1.6% month-on-month. Although suspended mines in Shanxi have continued to resume operations, the recovery in actual output lags behind the resumption of operations; production levels at these mines remain significantly lower than before the shutdowns. Safety inspections were rigorous during the "Safe Production Month" in June, leading to brief, inspection-related shutdowns in some areas. Overall, while there has been marginal improvement in supply, it remains far from returning to normal levels.
Regarding downstream demand: Demand remains robust. The blast furnace operating rate at steel mills reached 84.27%, with average daily molten iron output maintaining a high level of 2.409 million tons. The eighth round of coke price increases was fully implemented on June 22. Steel mills show strong, essential demand for coke, allowing coking enterprises to ship products smoothly and maintain low inventory levels. Downstream purchasing is primarily driven by immediate needs, and the upward momentum for some high-priced coal varieties has slowed slightly.
SunSirs coking coal analysts believe that, in the short term, significant increases in coal mine output are unlikely, while the sustained high level of molten iron production provides solid support for coking coal demand. Coking coal prices are expected to remain stable with a tendency to rise in the near term. Future trends will largely depend on the supply-demand balance and the volume of construction material transactions.
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