Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of June 18, the average quoted price for premium-grade DMF from domestic producers stood at 4,760 RMB/ton. The domestic DMF industry's operating rate last week ranged from 65% to 70%, marking a slight decline compared to the week before last; some small and medium-sized enterprises reduced operating loads or undertook short-term maintenance due to inverted profit margins.
Analysis of Causes
Market Supply and Cost Factors: Methanol prices are trending downward, while dimethylamine prices remain firm; overall cost support is weak, and producers lack the inclination to hold firm on prices. Regarding inventory, stock levels in East and South China are high (representing 15-20 days of supply), creating significant pressure to move product; some enterprises are clearing inventory at low prices, resulting in ample spot market availability.
Regarding the market: Downstream demand is limited to small, essential orders, with little appetite for bulk purchasing. Upstream suppliers face high inventory pressure and are primarily offloading stock at lower prices; market sentiment is bearish, keeping prices stable to weak amidst sluggish trading and intensifying market contention. This week, DMF prices fluctuated within a narrow range with a downward bias; spot trading remained quiet as upstream and downstream sectors engaged in a tug-of-war. Meanwhile, the market for methanol—a key DMF feedstock—strengthened amid fluctuations; spot prices rose by 20-135 RMB/ton in Shandong, Central China, and Southwest China, while port-based methanol futures trended upward. Prices for raw materials such as dimethylamine and synthetic ammonia remained stable or rose slightly; while integrated producers maintained manageable costs, manufacturers relying on external raw materials continued to face inverted profit margins. Consequently, the willingness to sell at low prices has diminished significantly, and factories are increasingly inclined to hold firm on prices, effectively capping the potential for further price declines due to cost constraints.
Regarding demand: The footwear, apparel, luggage, and synthetic leather industries are currently in their traditional off-season, resulting in scarce end-market orders and low operating rates among small and medium-sized sizing agent plants. Raw material procurement is strictly limited to immediate, small-batch replenishment based on essential needs, with no advance stockpiling. Stricter environmental regulations—classifying DMF-containing waste liquid as hazardous waste—have constrained operations for small and medium-sized enterprises, further weakening demand. While production in the pharmaceutical and agrochemical sectors (driven by inelastic demand) remains stable—with steady procurement volumes and minimal order fluctuations—this provides only a baseline market floor; it fails to drive bulk purchasing, and there is a complete lack of incremental growth. Demand for electronic-grade DMF in the electronics and export sectors remains steady, with stable orders for high-end electronic solvents, though these account for a limited share of total consumption. On the export front, orders from Southeast and South Asia are lackluster as overseas downstream markets are also in their off-season; a slight rise in shipping costs has eroded export cost-effectiveness, and insufficient export growth fails to offset weak domestic demand.
Market Outlook
Analysts at SunSirs believe that, with no new large-scale maintenance shutdowns scheduled and the market remaining in a sluggish off-season dominated by weak demand, DMF prices are likely to revert to a fluctuating, downward trend. A substantial market rebound will only occur when demand picks up—driven by the launch of autumn/winter footwear and apparel orders in August and September and the arrival of the traditional peak season for the slurry industry.
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