The USDA's June *World Agricultural Production* report projects the EU rapeseed harvested area for the 2026/27 marketing year at 6.3 million hectares—unchanged from the previous month, up 3% year-on-year, and 7% above the five-year average. Yield is forecast at 3.25 tonnes per hectare, a 1% downward revision from the previous month but 1% higher than the five-year average of 3.23 tonnes per hectare.

With the EU rapeseed harvested area up 3% year-on-year and 7% above the five-year average—and yields remaining above the five-year average despite a slight monthly downward revision—overall rapeseed supply is expected to be relatively ample. This contributes to a marginally looser global oilseed supply, thereby weakening cost-side support for rapeseed meal. On June 16, 2026, the benchmark rapeseed meal futures contract (2609) closed at 2,280 RMB/tonne with a settlement price of 2,270 RMB/tonne and an open interest of 981,300 tonnes; the anticipated increase in supply exerts moderate bearish pressure on rapeseed meal prices.

The expectation of relatively ample EU rapeseed supply places downward pressure on upstream rapeseed prices and weakens cost support for downstream rapeseed oil, exerting moderate bearish pressure on rapeseed oil prices.

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