DOP plasticizer prices rose and then fell in June

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of DOP stood at 9,234.17 RMB/ton as of June 15, reflecting a net increase of 1.00% from the 9,142.50 RMB/ton recorded on June 1, following a trend of initial gains followed by a decline. Throughout June, the domestic DOP market was characterized by narrow fluctuations and a lack of upward momentum. Although the price level shifted slightly higher during the month, persistent pressure from supply-demand imbalances capped the potential for further price increases. With the easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the "geopolitical risk premium" is rapidly dissipating, and market dynamics are shifting back from cost-driven factors to being primarily governed by supply-demand fundamentals.

Cost side: Support from raw materials weakened.

The price of the raw material isooctanol stopped rising and began to fall

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the quoted price of isooctanol (2-EH) stood at 8,116.67 RMB/ton as of June 15. This reflects a net increase of 1.88% compared to the June 1 price of 7,966.67 RMB/ton (following a pattern of initial rise and subsequent fall) and a 21.75% increase compared to the February 28 price of 6,666.67 RMB/ton. Regarding costs, a ceasefire between the US and Iran led to a drop in crude oil prices, which dragged down the price of downstream propylene; this reduction in costs weakened the cost support for isooctanol. On the supply-demand front, new production capacities coming online have resulted in an oversupply of isooctanol; coupled with sluggish demand, this has intensified downward pressure on isooctanol prices and, consequently, on DOP prices.

Phthalic anhydride market saw weak consolidation

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the quoted price for OX-based phthalic anhydride (PA) stood at 8,476.67 RMB/ton as of June 15, marking a decline of 2.38% from the 8,683.33 RMB/ton recorded on June 1. Following the ceasefire between the US and Iran, the core market driver for PA has shifted from "geopolitical risk premiums" to "fundamental rebalancing." On the cost side, expectations of falling crude oil prices are set to dominate market sentiment; with room for further downward adjustment in OX prices, PA prices are highly likely to follow suit. On the demand side, the combination of the traditional off-season and sluggish downstream consumption has resulted in weak demand for PA, intensifying the downward pressure on prices.

Analysis of DOP Market Supply and Demand in June

Supply side: Overall oversupply

In June, the capacity utilization rate of the DOP industry stood at 52%, with operating rates at major plants remaining largely stable; while the utilization rate stabilized after hitting a low in May, overall spot supply was not tight. However, procurement demand remained excessively weak, and the market imbalance of oversupply was not effectively alleviated.

Demand Side: Persistently Weak

Sluggish demand is the primary factor constraining upward market momentum. End-users generally lack confidence in the market outlook and are adopting highly cautious purchasing strategies, limiting themselves to small orders for essential needs while strongly resisting high-priced supplies; consequently, market inquiries remain limited and trading activity is subdued.

Market Overview and Outlook

Analysts at SunSirs monitoring plasticizer products note that the price of the raw material isooctanol (octanol) has begun to soften, easing cost pressures on DOP to some extent; meanwhile, the de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran has led to a drop in crude oil prices, triggering further downward pressure on prices. Given that downstream demand is unlikely to see substantial improvement in the short term, the DOP market is expected to remain weak and range-bound, with price levels potentially drifting slightly lower; the recovery of industry profit margins also faces significant uncertainty.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.