According to data from SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed oil was 10,210 RMB/tonne on June 11 and 10,090 RMB/tonne on June 16, representing a decline of 1.18%.

Domestic arrivals of rapeseed are peaking, and crushing operations at oil plants continue to ramp up; consequently, commercial rapeseed oil inventories have entered a seasonal accumulation phase. This loose short-term supply is exerting downward pressure on spot prices.

The market is currently in the traditional off-season for edible oil consumption, with sluggish restocking demand from the catering and food processing sectors. Meanwhile, soybean oil prices are significantly lower than those of rapeseed oil, prompting downstream processors to substitute rapeseed oil with soybean oil and causing a sharp contraction in essential procurement. Crude oil prices have retreated in the short term, dampening overall sentiment in the edible oil sector.

Weakness in the futures market continues to weigh on market sentiment, prompting spot traders to lower their quotes in line with futures trends.

In the short term, spot prices remain prone to decline rather than growth, dragged down by rapeseed arrivals and the consumption off-season; if futures prices continue to weaken, spot prices are likely to maintain a slow, steady downward trend. In the medium term, near-month contracts face pressure from inventory accumulation and weak fundamentals, while distant-month contracts are supported by expectations of reduced rapeseed production overseas, maintaining a "weak near-term, strong long-term" pattern. Future attention should focus on weather conditions in Canadian production regions.

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