From June 1 to June 15, polyester filament prices remained stable before surging and then falling back; the overall trend was characterized by "low-level fluctuation, a sharp spike, and rapid cooling."

According to price data from SunSirs, viewed by stages:

June 1–7 (Consolidation with a weak tone): Continued the trend of gradual decline seen in May, with minor fluctuations.

POY: 8,450–8,470 RMB/ton

FDY: 8,970–8,980 RMB/ton

DTY: 9,580–9,610 RMB/ton

June 8–9 (Surge in activity)

June 8: The average production-to-sales ratio among sampled enterprises reached 439.9%, with some factories hitting 600%–1000%; downstream buyers stocked up for 7–25 days of inventory.

June 9: Driven by rising oil prices, quotes increased across the board by 50–100 RMB/ton; prices reached 8,550–8,600 RMB/ton for POY, 9,050–9,100 RMB/ton for FDY, and 9,700–9,750 RMB/ton for DTY.

June 10–15 (Rapid pullback): The production-to-sales ratio plummeted to 41% (on June 12); essential demand was weak, and acceptance of high prices was low.

Quotes saw a slight downward adjustment: POY at approx. 8,475 RMB/ton, FDY at 9,020 RMB/ton, and DTY at 9,644 RMB/ton.

Key driving factors

1. Cost Side: Strong expectations regarding oil prices are providing a floor for PTA. Amidst geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and wide fluctuations in crude oil prices, PTA remains resilient; high polymerization costs are supporting the price floor for filament.

2. Supply Side: Leading producers are cutting output, leading to a decline in operating rates. Major players like Tongkun and Xinfengming have voluntarily reduced production, causing the industry operating rate to drop to 4% and easing short-term supply pressure.

3. Demand Side: Off-season restocking is occurring, though this does not signal a genuine market recovery. Downstream weavers are engaging in short-cycle restocking (5–7 days) and concentrated purchasing, driven partly by panic over oil prices; however, a lack of end-market orders and thin profit margins have resulted in weak willingness to follow through on higher prices.

4. Capital and Sentiment: Short-term speculation saw a surge followed by a cooling off. Leading stocks hit the daily limit on June 12, driving up market sentiment; however, lacking fundamental demand support, capital quickly exited the market, causing prices to retreat.

Inventory and Production Starts

Inventory: Filament inventory stands at approximately 28–39 days, a moderately high level; following a concentrated round of restocking on June 8–9, inventory levels have eased slightly but remain elevated, capping the potential for upward price movement.

Operating Rates: Filament production is at 73%–74%; downstream rates are 70%–75% for weaving and 60%–70% for texturing, indicating overall sluggishness.

Market Summary and Outlook

Summary: The first half of the month saw a price spike driven by off-season restocking and geopolitical disruptions, rather than a structural trend reversal. Prices fluctuated within the ranges of 8,400–8,600 RMB/ton (POY), 8,900–9,100 RMB/ton (FDY), and 9,500–9,750 RMB/ton (DTY), retreating quickly after the initial surge; the market remains characterized by weak demand, high costs, and a tug-of-war on the supply side.

Outlook (Second half of June): Prices are expected to remain range-bound: POY 8,400–8,600 RMB/ton, FDY 8,900–9,100 RMB/ton, and DTY 9,500–9,700 RMB/ton.

Key factors to watch: Crude oil trends, PTA prices, weaving operating rates, and inventory destocking.

Risks: Persistently weak demand, inventory accumulation, and a sharp drop in oil prices.

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