Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the market price of 1# tin ingots in East China declined between June 3 and June 12. The average market price stood at 447,020 RMB/ton at the beginning of the period and fell to 410,940 RMB/ton by June 12, representing a decrease of 8.07%.

Since June, the dominant Shanghai tin contract has fluctuated repeatedly within the 390,000-440,000 RMB/ton range. Last week, prices oscillated within this broad band with rapid shifts in direction; indeed, wide-ranging volatility has been the defining characteristic of the market throughout June.

The following is an analysis based on supply and demand dynamics: "support from below and resistance from above"—a head-to-head clash between bullish and bearish forces.

Supply Side

The resumption of tin mining operations in Myanmar’s Wa State has significantly underperformed expectations. To date, due to constraints such as operational restrictions, delays in material approvals, and the onset of the rainy season, production capacity at the Man Maw tin mine has recovered to only 40%-50% of pre-ban levels. The rainy season (May-July) is further curbing open-pit mining and transportation, leaving limited room for output growth in the short term. In April, China’s tin ore imports from Myanmar totaled 5,678 tonnes (gross weight)—a 22% month-on-month decline and only about 36% of the pre-suspension monthly average. Regarding the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the transport of approximately 6% of tin output from the Bisie mine has been disrupted. Indonesia saw its refined tin exports drop by more than 50% both year-on-year and month-on-month in April, while an increase in the mining tax rate to 20% has raised long-term costs. These supply-side constraints across multiple fronts have established a solid floor for tin prices.

Demand Side

AI computing hardware is driving growth in tin demand—accounting for approximately 10% of the total—characterized by high price tolerance and a clear long-term demand floor. Regarding traditional sectors, the lead-acid battery market has entered its off-season, production and sales of photovoltaics and new energy vehicles have slowed, tinplate exports have dropped sharply, and the recovery in consumer electronics remains tepid. High tin prices are dampening spot purchases of solder; downstream activity is driven primarily by essential needs with little inclination to restock. While baseline demand provides support, buyers are unwilling to chase rising prices, placing upward pressure on tin prices.

Market Outlook

As of June 12, tin prices have completed a cycle of extreme volatility—characterized by a surge to a peak, a subsequent rout, and a rebound—and have entered a short-term tug-of-war between resistance from moving averages and support from essential demand, with price fluctuation remaining the dominant trend. Over the medium to long term, tight fundamentals and AI-driven demand continue to support an upward shift in the price baseline, though the market must first digest inventory levels and macroeconomic pressures in the near term.

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