Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes rose slightly last week. By the end of the week, the price of 20# seamless tubes (108×4.5 mm) was quoted at 4,118 RMB/ton, up 0.15% from the beginning of the week and up 0.32% year-on-year.

Market analysis

Last week, the market for seamless tube billets remained stable but sluggish, with ex-works quotes for 20# hot-rolled billets ranging from 3,350 to 3,490 yuan per tonne. Steel mills maintained a firm stance on prices, and with support from essential restocking by tube manufacturers, the price floor for billets remained solid. Market transactions were dominated by long-term orders from tube manufacturers, with minimal purchasing by spot buyers; overall trading activity was steady, and inventory levels remained low. Procurement was driven primarily by immediate needs rather than a desire for bulk restocking, resulting in subdued market trading.

The Coke 2609 contract surged by 3.56% as bullish sentiment intensified for the main contract. This rally was primarily driven by expectations of production curbs at coking plants and low port inventory levels, compounded by strong anticipation that a seventh round of spot price hikes would be implemented; the market priced in these gains early, exerting clear upward pressure on steelmaking and billet rolling costs. Meanwhile, the Iron Ore 2609 contract fell by 2.5%, continuing its downward trend. On one hand, blast furnace operating rates at downstream steel mills remained stable, with iron ore restocking limited to on-demand purchasing rather than concentrated buying; on the other hand, port inventories continued to accumulate, creating ample spot supply that weighed on iron ore futures prices.

The market is gradually transitioning from the traditional peak season for steel consumption to the off-season; the pace of downstream infrastructure construction is slowing, and operating rates in the machinery manufacturing sector are edging down, indicating a lack of sustained momentum in overall end-user demand. Downstream buyers continue to limit purchases to immediate needs without plans for large-scale stockpiling, and speculative demand is entirely absent. Consequently, overall demand-side support is weakening, leaving limited room for any significant increase in trading volume going forward.

Market outlook

Overall, the seamless tube market is currently supported at the bottom by raw material costs, leaving little room for a significant price drop; however, the traditional off-season has highlighted weaknesses in end-user demand—specifically a lack of sustainability and volume—resulting in no upward momentum for the market. The pattern of a weak supply-demand balance is unlikely to change in the near term. Consequently, the domestic seamless tube market is expected to continue fluctuating within a stable price range.

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