On June 15, the domestic polyester filament market maintained a pattern of contracting supply, declining inventories, and a marginal recovery in demand. Recently, polyester filament producers have proactively reduced operating rates—with the industry-wide operating rate falling below 70%—significantly easing supply pressure. Coupled with international crude oil prices trending strong due to geopolitical factors, cost support for polyester raw materials has strengthened, and leading enterprises are showing a strong determination to maintain price levels. Operating rates in downstream sectors—specifically texturing and weaving—have rebounded from lows; moderate restocking ahead of the holiday drove a temporary surge in sales volume, leading to a sharp drop in industry inventories. Market focus is gradually shifting from geopolitical sentiment to the supply-demand dynamics of the industry chain itself; overall prices are fluctuating at high levels amidst an intensifying tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces.
I. Spot Prices and Regional Transactions Today
Today, quotes for mainstream domestic polyester filament varieties remained generally firm. Low-priced stock from earlier periods has largely been cleared, and major manufacturers are gradually raising ex-factory prices; however, downstream willingness to chase higher prices is limited, resulting in some divergence regarding the room for negotiation on actual orders.
Regarding quotes for mainstream categories, prices for POY, FDY, and DTY rose steadily, with no drastic market fluctuations. Regionally, Jiangsu and Zhejiang—the core hubs for production and sales—led the national market with quotes, and mainstream products saw smooth transaction flows. Prices in South China textile hubs like Fujian and Guangdong also trended upward, showing strong resilience supported by expectations for export orders.
In terms of trading pace, following a round of concentrated restocking, market sales volume today has retreated somewhat compared to earlier periods. Instances of middlemen offloading low-priced stock have decreased, and the structure of circulating inventory has improved. Most downstream enterprises have completed their pre-Dragon Boat Festival stocking; follow-up on new orders has slowed, with transactions primarily driven by contract orders and sporadic essential demand.
II. Supply Side: Producers Proactively Reduce Operating Rates
Entering June, the polyester filament industry shifted to a mode of proactive production cuts. This week, the industry's comprehensive operating rate fell below 70%, clearly demonstrating a trend of supply-side contraction. Based on expectations for the market outlook, most leading enterprises have adopted strategies of limiting sales at low prices and controlling shipment volumes, while delaying the release of new capacity to gradually alleviate the market pressure caused by previously high supply levels. The period of peak supply pressure has passed; there are few instances of concentrated new capacity commissioning or production restarts in the short term. On the feedstock side, prices for polyester raw materials like PX and PTA have shown a volatile upward trend due to fluctuations in international crude oil prices. High production costs have prompted filament manufacturers to schedule production cautiously, further limiting supply growth and providing support for spot prices.
III. Inventory Status: Concentrated De-stocking; Levels Return to Q1 Range
With the completion of periodic downstream stockpiling, inventory levels in the polyester filament industry have dropped significantly. This week, inventories of mainstream products such as POY and FDY fell sharply, returning to levels seen in early March.
The primary driver of this de-stocking phase is downstream restocking ahead of the holiday: anticipating firm prices in the short term and combining this with routine off-season stocking needs, downstream enterprises engaged in concentrated purchasing extending beyond the Dragon Boat Festival, directly accelerating the depletion of factory inventories. Currently, both downstream greige fabric and raw material inventories are low, leaving little buffer; thus, even if short-term demand remains lackluster, the risk of significant inventory accumulation is limited.
IV. Demand Side: Operating Rates Recover; Demand Turning Point Emerges
Today’s downstream market is characterized by "rising operating rates and stable essential demand." Operating rates for downstream texturizing and weaving enterprises have rebounded slightly from lows, signaling a potential turning point in terminal demand. The current situation does not reflect a broad surge in actual consumption; rather, it stems from routine off-season stockpiling and strategic positioning in anticipation of a recovery in overseas demand during the third quarter.
Regarding demand structure, domestic orders for textiles and apparel remain generally lackluster. However, the market is optimistic about a restocking trend in Europe and the US for the second half of the year; positive expectations for long-term orders are supporting basic production levels among downstream enterprises. Current downstream sentiment is cautious, with little appetite for chasing higher prices; purchasing is largely limited to small, staggered orders based on immediate needs, causing filament sales volumes to retreat after the initial surge. Overall essential demand has not contracted substantially, and market demand remains resilient.
V. Costs and External Factors
Production costs are providing a strong floor for the market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have recently caused repeated market fluctuations, driving international crude oil prices higher. Although oil prices have become more volatile due to related commentary, they have generally remained at high levels, thereby bolstering the prices of raw materials across the PX-PTA-polyester value chain. With upstream raw material supplies unlikely to increase significantly in the short term, solid cost support is limiting the downside potential for polyester filament prices.
External demand represents a key positive factor for the medium-to-long term. European and US textile markets have been minimally affected by geopolitical conflicts; expectations for inventory restocking in the second half of the year are clear, and the risk of a decline in external demand is low—factors that underpin the market's long-term optimism. Market sentiment is currently shifting from speculation driven by geopolitical risks to a focus on the supply-demand dynamics within the industry chain itself.
VI. Outlook and Forecast
In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate at high levels around the Dragon Boat Festival. With supply continuing to contract and low industry inventory levels persisting—compounded by raw material cost support—a sharp price drop is unlikely. However, as downstream pre-holiday stocking has largely concluded and there is insufficient growth in new orders, the momentum for prices to surge further is weak; range-bound fluctuation is expected to be the prevailing trend.
In the medium term, the focus will be on the alignment of supply and demand recovery. Restocking in Europe and the US during the third quarter, combined with the traditional peak season for domestic textiles, serves as a core positive driver; however, the pace at which polyester filament producers resume production must also be monitored. If the rate of supply recovery outpaces the rebound in demand, the market will face renewed pressure; conversely, if demand rises steadily, the market is likely to maintain its upward momentum.
Overall, the polyester filament industry currently demonstrates strong self-regulatory capacity, with demand resilience and positive long-term expectations providing market support. Moving forward, attention should be paid to downstream weaving operating rates, raw material prices, and the actualization of orders for the third quarter.
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