Yesterday (June 15), the domestic phosphate fertilizer market generally showed a trend of volatility with an upward bias, featuring localized price hikes. Influenced by the agreement reached between the US and Iran, international crude oil prices weakened, driving a sharp drop in sulfur prices and providing temporary relief regarding cost pressures for phosphate fertilizers; however, prices for phosphate rock and sulfuric acid remained high. Coupled with tight circulating supplies, phosphate fertilizer producers showed a strong determination to maintain price levels. Currently, the domestic fertilizer market is in a seasonal lull; downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers are purchasing primarily to meet immediate needs, and market trading remains cautious. Price trends for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) diverged, though the overall market was characterized by consolidation at high levels.

I. Price Indices and Regional Quotes for Mainstream Varieties

(I) Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP)

Regarding prices, quotes for various MAP grades showed mixed movements on June 15. The price index for 55% powdered MAP stood at 4,370.00, up 0.14% from the previous trading day; the index for 55% granular MAP was 4,450.00, a single-day increase of 1.14%; and the index for 58% powdered MAP remained flat.

Regionally, quotes showed a trend of stability with some increases: In East China (Anhui, Shandong, and Jiangsu), mainstream quotes for 55% powdered MAP remained stable at 4,450–4,500 RMB/ton, 4,450–4,550 RMB/ton, and 4,430–4,480 RMB/ton, respectively. Trends in Central China diverged: prices for 55% powdered and granular MAP in Hubei rose by 50 RMB/ton and 100 RMB/ton respectively, while quotes in Henan remained stable. In Southwest China, the price for 55% powdered MAP in Yunnan rose by 50 RMB/ton, while quotes in Sichuan remained unchanged. In Northeast China (Bayuquan), the quote for 55% powdered MAP held steady at 4,250 RMB/ton. Currently, actual market transactions are mostly negotiated on a case-by-case basis, with traders tentatively raising their quoted prices.

(II) Diammonium Phosphate (DAP)

On June 15, the DAP market was characterized by a "wait-and-see" consolidation phase, with prices edging upward. The price index for 64% granular DAP stood at 4413.33, up 0.19% month-on-month; the index for 60% brown DAP remained flat; and the index for 57% DAP rose by 0.58%.

Regarding regional transaction prices, quotes for various DAP grades in the Northwest (Gansu and Shaanxi) remained stable. In North China (Hebei), prices for 57% natural-color and brown DAP held steady. In East China (Shandong), the price for 64% granular DAP rose by 50 RMB/ton and 57% brown DAP by 30 RMB/ton, while quotes in Jiangsu remained stable. Quotes for 64% granular DAP in Central China (Hubei) held steady, and prices for 64% granular products in Northeast China (Heilongjiang) saw no change. Overall regional price differentials remained reasonable; while there were minor localized price corrections, no widespread price adjustments occurred.

II. Enterprise Shipments and Supply Situation

Yesterday, most domestic phosphate fertilizer producers continued to prioritize the delivery of previously signed orders; major plants suspended quoting and accepting new orders, and the supply of spot goods available for circulation remained tight. Constrained by supply limitations, market players maintained a firm stance on pricing, with traders actively raising quotes, though downstream follow-through remained limited. The phosphate fertilizer industry's overall operating rate remained at a moderate level, with no large-scale maintenance shutdowns or significant production restarts; the tight supply-demand balance is expected to persist in the short term.

III. Upstream and Downstream Raw Material Trends

Raw material trends showed significant divergence, exerting a mixed impact on the phosphate fertilizer market. Regarding the core raw material—sulfur—bearish sentiment intensified following the agreement between the US and Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, causing prices to plummet yesterday. Specifically, prices for granular and lump/powder sulfur at Zhenjiang Port dropped by 1,950 RMB/ton (a decline of over 17%), and prices at Dafeng Port saw a similar sharp decline. Meanwhile, prices for solid and liquid sulfur in East China remained stable, while sulfur prices in Shandong, North China, and Central China showed mixed movements. Despite the pullback in sulfur prices, port inventories remain at multi-year lows, providing continued support from the supply side.

Beyond sulfur, the sulfuric acid market is fluctuating at high levels, with prices continuing to rise in certain regions; phosphate rock prices remain firm at high levels. Consequently, the combined cost of the three major raw materials remains elevated, offering no substantial relief from cost pressures for phosphate fertilizer producers and limiting the potential for price declines.

IV. Downstream Demand Performance

Currently, the domestic phosphate fertilizer market is in a traditional off-season, with preparations for autumn planting yet to begin. Operating rates at compound fertilizer plants remain low, and procurement strategies focus on replenishing stock based on immediate needs rather than large-scale, centralized purchasing. Local distributors are adopting a wait-and-see approach with little enthusiasm for stocking up; overall market trading is sluggish, consisting mainly of small, sporadic orders. Weak demand is failing to drive sustained price increases, acting as a primary constraint on market growth.

V. Market Outlook

In summary, the phosphate fertilizer market is currently characterized by high costs, tight supply, and lackluster demand. While the short-term drop in sulfur prices may dampen bullish sentiment, the sustained high prices of phosphate rock and sulfuric acid—combined with tight spot supplies—make a sharp decline in phosphate fertilizer prices unlikely; the market is expected to maintain a pattern of high-level fluctuation and consolidation. Moving forward, it is essential to monitor international geopolitical developments and price trends for raw materials like sulfur and sulfuric acid, while also tracking the recovery of compound fertilizer production and the timing of autumn stocking activities. These factors will dictate the future price trajectory of phosphate fertilizers.

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