I. Price Trends Last Week (June 8–12): Initial surge followed by a pullback; overall fluctuation at high levels with a weak bias.

1. SunSirs Price Data: Spot Market (Water-bottle grade, ex-factory price including tax in East China; mainstream transaction prices)

Early Week (June 8): Stimulated by a rise in crude oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, spot quotes climbed to 8,380–8,500 RMB/ton. Major manufacturers generally raised listed prices by 100–150 RMB/ton, and the market tested transactions at higher price points.

Mid-Week (June 9–10): Tensions between the US and Iran eased, leading to a rapid pullback in oil prices. Raw materials (PTA and MEG) weakened in tandem, causing spot bottle chip prices to decline continuously; the focus of price negotiations shifted downward to the 8,250–8,320 RMB/ton range.

End of Week (June 11–12): Transactions were limited to sporadic "just-in-time" demand. Low-priced supplies entered the market in larger volumes, pushing actual transaction prices down to 8,180–8,280 RMB/ton, with some low-end spot orders touching the 8,150 RMB/ton level.

Weekly Average Price: Approximately 8,290 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decline of 40–60 RMB. The weekly trend followed a pattern of "impulsive rise followed by rational pullback"; high prices lacked demand support, causing the overall price level to drift slightly lower.

2. Bottle Chip Futures (PR Main Contract)

The PR2607 contract opened at 7,536 RMB/ton at the start of the week. Driven by a surge in crude oil, it spiked to 7,920 RMB/ton in a single day (a daily increase of 4.96%). Subsequently, it pulled back for two consecutive days, hitting a low of 7,520 RMB/ton. On Friday, it saw a slight recovery, closing at 7,700 RMB/ton. The market basis strengthened, with the spot premium over futures widening to 260–330 RMB/ton, while processing margins compressed from the high level of 1,000 RMB/ton to the 900–960 RMB/ton range. 3. Export Quotes

Mainstream negotiated prices for FOB Shanghai ranged from $1,120 to $1,142 per tonne. Quotes were lowered during the week in line with domestic market trends. Overseas buyers remained cautious, leading to greater room for negotiation on long-term contracts. Spot purchasing activity from Southeast Asia and the Middle East slowed, and the volume of export growth fell short of May levels.

II. Breakdown of Four Key Fundamentals

1. Cost Side: Geopolitical volatility affecting crude oil; upstream/downstream support shifted from strong to weak

Early in the week, Israel struck petrochemical facilities in Iran, causing crude oil prices to spike above $95/bbl. This drove a short-term rally in PX and PTA futures, creating expectations of rising costs for PET bottle chips.

Subsequently, signals of a ceasefire from both sides caused oil prices to plummet. PTA spot prices retreated from above 6,500 RMB to the 6,370–6,450 RMB range, while MEG prices also fluctuated downward. The logic for rising costs quickly dissipated, removing the support for price hikes in PET bottle chips.

Currently, multiple PX units are scheduled for concentrated maintenance in June, and PTA operating rates remain low with continued inventory destocking at ports. Raw material prices show resilience at the bottom and are unlikely to see a sharp decline, providing a floor for PET bottle chip prices.

2. Supply Side: Operating rates rose slightly; inventories began to accumulate from low levels

The industry capacity utilization rate for PET bottle chips was 72.1% this week, up 0.39 percentage points week-on-week, with a total weekly output of 335,600 tonnes—a slight increase. Several units that had previously shut down for maintenance have restarted, and with new capacity scheduled to come online in late June, expectations for increased supply in the near future are strong.

Factory inventories rose from a low of 7 days to 9.45 days. The tight supply situation eased slightly; the volume of circulating stock held by traders increased, shifting bargaining power toward downstream buyers and weakening the willingness of factories to hold firm on prices.

Leading enterprises have not yet significantly reduced operating rates, relying on stable export orders. However, small and medium-sized plants have begun sporadic, minor rate reductions due to shrinking processing margins.

3. Demand Side: Steady baseline demand during the peak beverage season, but resistance to high prices and a lack of bulk stockpiling

As the domestic market enters the traditional peak season for bottled water and tea beverages, leading companies like Nongfu Spring and C'estbon are securing supplies through regular monthly tenders, providing a solid demand floor;

Downstream small-to-medium-sized preform and packaging plants show low acceptance of high prices (exceeding 8,400 RMB/tonne), opting instead for a "just-in-time" purchasing model with small-batch restocking while waiting for a price correction; the market lacks significant bulk stocking activity, and sluggish trading at high spot prices limits upward price momentum;

Terminal beverage sales are influenced by regional temperature variations, resulting in uneven demand between the north and south; overall production and sales have not seen a stronger-than-expected recovery.

4. Profit Margins and Market Sentiment

Theoretical processing margins for PET bottle flakes have retreated from a May peak of 1,100 RMB/tonne to around 900 RMB/tonne this week, though profitability remains historically high. Market sentiment is clearly divided:

Manufacturers: Concerned about the future launch of new production capacity, they are moving inventory moderately early rather than holding out against high prices for the long term;

Downstream buyers: Waiting for inventory accumulation and price softening; they are holding cash and watching the market, avoiding early commitments to high-priced long-term supplies;

Traders: Focused on quick, short-term turnover with little appetite for stockpiling; overall market trading activity remains subdued.

III. Market Outlook for the Week (June 13–19)

1. Price Range: The mainstream spot price range in East China is projected at 8,120–8,350 RMB/tonne; the market is likely to fluctuate with a bearish bias, and the price center may shift lower. The futures PR contract range is estimated at 7,480–7,850 RMB.

2. Key Drivers: Bearish factors dominate—supply is gradually increasing, there is no concentrated restocking by downstream buyers, and processing margins are high with room for contraction. Only sudden geopolitical conflicts affecting oil shipping or unexpected large-scale PTA maintenance shutdowns would trigger a short-term price rebound.

3. Key Monitoring Points: ① Shipping status in straits near Iran and oil price volatility; ② Commissioning progress of new PET bottle chip units (e.g., Wankai, Yisheng); ③ Transaction prices from the second round of tenders by major beverage manufacturers in mid-to-late June; ④ Whether bottle chip plants significantly reduce operating rates due to shrinking margins.

IV. Brief Summary

The market for PET bottle chips next week is expected to follow a pattern of "initial spikes driven by news, followed by a weakening trend as fundamentals reassert themselves." While peak-season demand provides a floor for prices, rising supply and resistance to high prices make it difficult to break through previous highs. Over the next 1–2 weeks, the market will likely enter a phase of weak fluctuation and a gradual reduction in processing margins; a sustained, sharp unilateral rally is unlikely, and short-term prices will fluctuate in response to news regarding crude oil and PTA.

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