According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, corrugated paper prices maintained a trend of steady, continuous growth this week. On June 11, the average ex-factory price for 140g corrugated base paper was 2,931 RMB/ton, up 1.03% from the average price on June 7.

Cost Side: Waste paper prices in the Zhejiang region rose across the board this week, with paper mills nationwide following suit. On June 11, the average purchase price for Grade A waste corrugated cardboard (OCC) in Zhejiang was 1,900 RMB/ton, a 5.09% increase compared to June 7. Waste paper prices reversed sharply after June 7, as over 70 paper mills nationwide raised their procurement prices. Widespread, continuous rainfall across the country hindered outdoor collection, drying, and transportation at baling stations, leading to a significant drop in OCC deliveries to mills. As baling stations withheld stock and controlled shipment volumes, paper mills faced insufficient arrivals and were forced to raise prices to secure raw materials, driving up raw material costs.

Supply Side: Leading paper enterprises continued maintenance-related shutdowns, keeping the industry's effective operating rate at a temporarily lower level; consequently, the supply of corrugated paper available for ex-factory shipment decreased, tightening market liquidity. Due to earlier sustained shipments combined with production cuts, finished base paper inventories at major mills remained low, removing any short-term pressure to destock via price reductions. Furthermore, with leading enterprises issuing successive price hike notices and small-to-medium mills following suit, there was a strong industry-wide consensus to support prices.

Demand Side: A surge in carton orders ahead of major e-commerce promotions, combined with concentrated restocking by express delivery and FMCG packaging plants, provided a floor for spot market transactions based on essential demand. A "buy on the rise, not on the fall" mentality emerged downstream, with buyers opting for small, staggered restocking batches, preventing paper prices from dropping. Additionally, export-related container packaging orders in East and South China saw a slight month-on-month recovery in the second quarter; this modest increase in external demand helped offset the domestic off-season slump, though the growth was insufficient to drive a sharp spike in paper prices. Analysts at SunSirs believe that the current tight supply of waste paper is unlikely to ease in the short term; raw material costs remain high and firm, providing solid price support. While operating rates are gradually recovering as paper mills conclude short-term maintenance—leading to a phased increase in supply—leading manufacturers remain determined to maintain prices, and further price hikes are still anticipated. However, demand remains weak due to the off-season, and downstream buyers are resistant to high raw paper prices and reluctant to place bulk orders, creating greater resistance to passing on cost increases. Consequently, corrugated paper prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with an upward bias in the short term.

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