According to Futures Daily, recent volatility in the Middle East situation and fluctuations in international crude oil prices at high levels—combined with persistently tight upstream PX (paraxylene) supplies—have provided strong cost support for PTA. However, the downstream textile market has entered the summer off-season; follow-through on end-market orders is weak, and inventories in the polyester sector are gradually accumulating. This evident weakness on the demand side continues to constrain any rebound in PTA futures prices. Amidst this interplay of bullish and bearish factors, the PTA market is expected to trade within a range in the short term.

While production units such as FCFC (Taiwan), Hanwha (South Korea), and NSRP (Vietnam) have recently restarted, plans for maintenance or reduced operating rates at PTTG (Thailand) and SK (South Korea) mean that Asian refineries are generally maintaining low operating loads. For the week ending June 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate for Asian PX stood at 68.81%, down 0.14 percentage points from early May and 3.67 percentage points from the same period last year. Ongoing localized friction in the Middle East and persistent uncertainty regarding raw material supplies make it difficult for Asian refinery operating rates to recover significantly in the near term. Notably, with the arrival of the peak summer gasoline consumption season in North America, global demand for aromatics in gasoline blending remains strong. High aromatics cracking margins in the US have widened the price spread between US and Asian aromatics, further restricting the volume of overseas supplies available for export to China.

A wave of domestic PX maintenance shutdowns began in late May and continues through June, further highlighting the trend of supply contraction. CICC Petrochemical’s 1.6-million-tonne unit was fully shut down in late May, with no confirmed restart date yet; Hainan Refining & Chemical’s 1-million-tonne unit began a three-month maintenance period in early June; maintenance on Yangzi Petrochemical’s 890,000-tonne unit will last until mid-to-late June; Fuhaichuang’s maintenance on one 800,000-tonne unit extends to the end of July, with another 800,000-tonne unit also scheduled for maintenance in June; and Shenghong Refining & Chemical (Lianyungang) is set to begin a 50-day major maintenance overhaul spanning late June and early July. For the week ending June 5, the domestic weekly capacity utilization rate for paraxylene (PX) stood at 79.84%, down 4.38 percentage points from early May and 3.60 percentage points from the same period last year, indicating a continued tightening of effective domestic PX supply.

Overall, the simultaneous maintenance and restart of overseas PX plants have limited the extent of production recovery; meanwhile, North American demand for gasoline blending has diverted import volumes, resulting in tight overall supply across Asia. Domestically, the planned wave of concentrated PX plant maintenance has taken place—with further maintenance scheduled—leading to a significant month-on-month decline in industry operating rates. Coupled with cost support from high crude oil prices, the short-term pattern of tight PX supply and demand is expected to persist, continuing to provide a cost floor for purified terephthalic acid (PTA).

Regarding PTA's own supply-demand dynamics, the market is currently characterized by a tug-of-war between a marginal recovery in supply and persistently weak demand.

On the supply side, several plants have recently restarted, leading to a slight recovery in industry supply. Specifically: Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5-million-tonne unit shut down on May 23 due to operational issues but restarted at the end of May; one of Hainan Yisheng’s 2-million-tonne units restarted in late May, while another 2.5-million-tonne unit shut down on June 4; Jiatong Energy’s 3-million-tonne unit underwent maintenance starting May 20 and resumed operations on June 3; and Hengli Huizhou’s 2.5-million-tonne unit restarted on May 29 following a brief five-day shutdown. As of June 10, the domestic PTA capacity utilization rate was 64.99%; while this represents an 8.04 percentage point rebound from the low seen in late May, it remains 18.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Overall, the PTA industry operating rate remains at a historically low level, and supply pressure is not significant; furthermore, with no new domestic PTA capacity additions scheduled through 2026, the industry is expected to maintain a tight balance of existing capacity in the long term.

However, persistent weakness on the demand side remains the primary constraint. The textile sector has entered its traditional off-season; overseas clients are placing orders cautiously, and the recovery of export orders remains sluggish. Domestic trade is dominated by small, short-term orders, and there is a distinct lack of momentum for concentrated restocking by downstream manufacturers. Data shows that for the week ending June 5, the operating rate of weaving looms in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region stood at only 51.08%, down 0.74 percentage points from early May and dropping sharply by 10.18 percentage points year-on-year. Order backlogs for weaving enterprises amounted to just 8.13 days, a decrease of 0.63 days from early May and 2.29 days from the same period last year.

The polyester industry is experiencing sluggish production and sales, with inventories of polyester filament continuing to accumulate. As of the week ending June 5, inventory levels (measured in days of supply) for DTY, FDY, and POY were 39.2 days, 31.2 days, and 29.9 days, respectively. Compared to early May, DTY inventory rose by 2.9 days and POY by 2.4 days, while FDY fell by 2 days; year-on-year, all three categories saw increases of 10.8 days, 9.6 days, and 13.4 days, respectively. Faced with the dual pressure of high finished-product inventories and compressed processing margins, polyester enterprises generally lack enthusiasm for production, leading to strong expectations for output cuts or reduced operating loads. Polyester operating rates are likely to decline further, continuing to suppress baseline demand for PTA.

In summary, upstream supply remains tight due to increased maintenance of PX facilities and the diversion of overseas supplies, while high crude oil prices reinforce cost support, effectively limiting the downside for PTA prices. However, the downstream textile industry is in a pronounced off-season; weak end-market orders and accumulating polyester inventories are dragging on potential price gains. In the short term, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate within a range defined by cost support and demand-side pressure. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include the evolving situation in the Middle East, crude oil price volatility, and the actual operating status of upstream and downstream facilities—particularly the scale of production cuts in the polyester sector and marginal changes in end-market demand.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.