1. Key Conclusion for the Week: Continued Strength and Breakout to Higher Levels

This week, the domestic LNG market maintained the strong upward momentum seen previously. The SunSirs benchmark price climbed from 5,834.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 6,046.00 RMB/ton, marking a 3.63% increase. During the week, prices not only breached the 6,000 RMB mark but also exhibited a pattern of "daily increases" or "high-level consolidation." Market sentiment remains strongly bullish, making it unlikely for the price center to shift downward in the short term.

2. Price Trend Review: Bullish Moving Average Alignment and Steady Gains

In terms of price trends, LNG prices demonstrated remarkable resilience this week, breaking out of the previous fluctuation range and entering a phase of unidirectional upward movement.

Daily prices rose steadily throughout the week, climbing from 5,964 RMB/ton on June 3 to 6,046 RMB/ton on June 9. Although daily gains ranged between 0.17% and 0.91%, the upward trend was highly consistent, showing no signs of a significant pullback.

Short-term moving averages (yellow line) and the 10-day moving average (red line) showed a clear upward divergence pattern and remained firmly positioned above the long-term moving averages. This indicates that the market is currently in a distinct upward channel.

3. In-depth Fundamental Analysis: Supported by Three Key Drivers

The strong price performance this week was primarily driven by a combination of unexpected events in the international market and seasonal demand:

Qatar Capacity Shortfall (Global Supply Contraction): Following an attack on an industrial zone in Qatar, key liquefaction facilities sustained severe damage. Throughout June, Qatar's export capacity is expected to recover to only about 50% of normal levels, leaving a persistent 17% capacity gap. This "hard shortage" has provided a continuous floor for global LNG spot prices; combined with the geopolitical risk premium associated with the Strait of Hormuz, this has directly raised the baseline for international gas prices. Australian Strike Wave (Tightening Asian Supply): As a core supplier of LNG to Asia, Australia faced a high risk of strikes from late May through early June. Major projects such as Ichthys and the North West Shelf faced risks of production cuts and shipping delays, causing a temporary tightening of Asian spot supplies and directly driving a surge in JKM (Japan/Korea Marker) spot prices.

Shift in Supply-Demand Dynamics (Onset of Seasonal Demand): On one hand, concentrated maintenance at refineries in the US and overseas from late May to mid-June led to an overall contraction in global energy supply. On the other hand, the Northern Hemisphere entered the peak summer season; rising temperatures across Asia steadily boosted demand for gas-fired power generation, completely reversing the weak demand typical of the off-season.

4. Market Outlook: Surge in Early June; High-Level Fluctuation in Late June

Looking ahead to the latter half of June, the LNG market is likely to maintain a pattern of "high-level fluctuation with occasional softening":

Short-term (Mid-June): Supported by uncertainties on the international supply side (such as the duration of strikes and the progress of production resumption in Qatar) and domestic restocking demand, prices may still surge, and market momentum remains strong.

Medium-to-long term (Late June): With expectations of a gradual restart for some international facilities and the dampening effect of earlier price hikes on certain industrial demand, prices may soften slightly in the latter half of the month. However, as the core supply gap persists, there will be no "price collapse," and the market will generally continue to operate within a high price range.

In summary, the LNG market is currently in a "super-cycle" driven by the convergence of a global supply crisis and seasonal demand. Prices are prone to rising rather than falling in the short term; market participants are advised to closely monitor international geopolitics and the operational status of facilities in major exporting countries.

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