Based on the latest customs import/export statistics and spot market data, domestic fertilizer trade from January to May 2026 was characterized by steady growth in total export volume and simultaneous increases in both import volume and price, with distinct performance variations across different fertilizer varieties. Influenced by factors such as seasonal demand, raw material costs, and capacity expansion, the domestic market saw nitrogen fertilizers trending weaker, while phosphate and potash fertilizers remained firm at high levels, and compound fertilizers held steady during the off-season; overall trends varied significantly by category. The following analysis examines import/export data by variety, domestic production, regional prices, supply-demand dynamics, and future market outlooks.

I. Fertilizer Import and Export Situation (January–May 2026)

(I) Overall Import and Export Overview

From January to May 2026, cumulative domestic exports of various fertilizers totaled 14.364 million tonnes (up 11.9% year-on-year), with an export value of US$3.347 billion (up 23.4%), marking a simultaneous rise in volume and price. In May alone, exports reached 2.971 million tonnes (down 5.5% year-on-year) with a value of US$769 million (up 5.8%); while monthly export volume declined, the average price increased.

On the import side, cumulative imports of various fertilizers totaled 8.111 million tonnes (a significant 31.3% year-on-year increase) with a value of US$3.042 billion (a sharp 58.3% rise). In May alone, imports totaled 1.718 million tonnes with an average landed price of US$370.20 per tonne; both volume and average price rose, reflecting the continued upward trend in overseas raw material costs.

(II) Import and Export Data for Key Varieties

Ammonium Sulfate

Cumulative exports from January to April totaled 6.38 million tonnes (up 19.3% year-on-year), accounting for over 55% of total fertilizer exports. Exports reached 1.79 million tonnes in April and maintained high volumes in May, serving as the primary driver of overall fertilizer export growth, supported by stable essential demand from overseas industrial and agricultural sectors. Urea

Cumulative exports from January to April totaled 490,000 tons, marking a significant year-on-year increase driven by a low base in the previous period and the release of export quotas. However, monthly exports were 15,000 tons in April and contracted further to a low level in May; with domestic capacity prioritized to ensure supply for spring farming, monthly export performance remained weak.

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) and Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) (Key Phosphate Fertilizers)

Cumulative MAP exports from January to April reached 110,000 tons, up 48.1% year-on-year, while cumulative DAP exports totaled 20,000 tons, a sharp decline of 76.3%; export trends for these phosphate fertilizers diverged significantly. There were virtually no DAP shipments abroad in April, and MAP exports were minimal; the scale of phosphate fertilizer exports continued to shrink due to high domestic costs and export controls.

Potassium Chloride (Top Imported Variety)

Domestic reliance on imported potash remains high; cumulative imports of potassium chloride from January to April totaled 5.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%. Imports reached 1.23 million tons in April and remained high in May. Sourced primarily from Canada, Russia, and Belarus, it is the leading category of imported fertilizer.

NPK Compound Fertilizers

Cumulative imports from January to April totaled 390,000 tons, up 20.8% year-on-year, with 90,000 tons imported in April. Imports consisted mainly of high-end formulations that filled gaps in domestic niche markets, while export volumes were negligible, as the market is essentially self-sufficient.

Other Fertilizers

Minor fertilizer categories, such as ammonium chloride and single superphosphate, saw only sporadic exports; overall volumes were small, having limited impact on market dynamics. Imports of fertilizer raw materials—such as sulfur and phosphate rock—rose in tandem, indirectly driving up domestic fertilizer production costs.

II. Current Status of Domestic Fertilizer Production by Category

1. Urea (Key Nitrogen Fertilizer)

Domestic urea production capacity is at a historical high. In the first week of June, the industry's overall operating rate reached 90.37%, with an average daily output of approximately 215,600 tons. Cumulative production from January to May increased year-on-year, resulting in an overall supply surplus. Although some production units are scheduled for short-term maintenance in mid-to-late June, the scale of affected capacity is limited; this is unlikely to alter the pattern of high daily output, and production is expected to remain at high levels in the short term.

2. Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) and Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) (Phosphate Fertilizers)

Driven by surging prices for key raw materials—sulfur and phosphate rock—losses in the phosphate fertilizer industry have deepened. Many small and medium-sized enterprises have halted production, while leading companies are operating at low capacity; industry-wide operating rates remain low, and overall output has declined year-on-year. Companies are prioritizing the fulfillment of existing long-term contracts and show little inclination to increase production, resulting in generally tight market supplies.

3. Potassium Chloride and Potassium Sulfate (Potash Fertilizers)

Domestic potash production capacity is growing slowly and is concentrated in the Qinghai and Xinjiang regions. While local output is stable, the volume is limited, meeting only about 30% of domestic demand, with the remaining 70%+ gap filled by imports. Domestic mining operations remain steady with no significant changes in output levels.

4. Compound Fertilizers

The industry has entered the lull between planting seasons; overall operating rates are low, with most companies maintaining reduced production loads and output declining slightly month-on-month. Production is largely demand-driven and adjusted according to raw material procurement schedules; overall output is contracting in line with the off-season at the consumer end.

III. Domestic Regional Spot Price Trends (June 9)

Based on mainstream market quotes and SunSirs benchmark prices, regional price variations across product categories are distinct:

Urea: SunSirs benchmark price is 1,786 RMB/ton. Mainstream ex-factory prices are 1,720–1,760 RMB/ton in Shandong (North China) and 1,740–1,760 RMB/ton in Henan. Xinjiang remains the region with the lowest prices, at 1,500–1,650 RMB/ton ex-factory. Delivered prices in South China are higher, ranging from 1,880 to 1,900 RMB/ton, though overall price trends remain weak.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): SunSirs  price is 4,416 RMB/ton. In Central China, mainstream ex-factory prices range from 4,200 to 4,350 RMB/ton, while delivered prices in Henan are 4,320–4,380 RMB/ton; delivered prices for granular products in Shandong and Jiangsu are 4,600–4,650 RMB/ton. Quotes remain high and stagnant due to cost support, though there is room for negotiation on actual transaction prices.

Potassium Chloride: Mainstream prices for 62% Russian white potash at ports are 3,150–3,220 RMB/ton, and 60% red powder potash is 3,150–3,550 RMB/ton. Ex-factory prices for domestic potash remain firm, with prices across all categories fluctuating within a narrow range.

Compound Fertilizer: Ex-factory prices are 3,250–3,500 RMB/ton for 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer, 2,800–3,020 RMB/ton for 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer, and 2,050–2,250 RMB/ton for 40% high-nitrogen fertilizer. Listed prices remain stable, while actual transactions involve flexible price concessions.

IV. Inventory and Domestic Demand Situation

1. Inventory Status

Social inventory of urea is relatively high, with total national stocks approaching 900,000 tonnes; inventory pressure is most acute in the major production regions of North and Northwest China, where high stock levels continue to suppress price rebounds. Finished product inventories at phosphate fertilizer enterprises are moderate, while traders generally maintain low inventory levels, operating on a "buy-as-you-sell" basis to mitigate risk. Port inventories of potassium chloride have accumulated slightly due to concentrated arrivals of imports, resulting in ample overall supply. Channel inventories for compound fertilizer are low, as distributors are not actively stockpiling. Overall, only urea inventory faces pressure, while stocks of phosphate/potash fertilizers and compound fertilizers remain within reasonable ranges.

2. Domestic Demand

The market is currently in the traditional summer lull for fertilizer application; spring planting has concluded, and preparations for autumn fertilization have not yet begun, resulting in generally weak demand. In the agricultural sector, fertilizer usage for field crops and top-dressing for cash crops has dropped significantly. On the industrial side, operating rates among downstream sectors—including compound fertilizer manufacturers, melamine producers, and urea-formaldehyde resin makers—remain sluggish; raw material procurement is driven primarily by small, essential orders, with no large-scale restocking activity. Demand by product segment: Urea relies solely on sporadic industrial demand and limited export orders; phosphate fertilizer demand is cautious due to high costs, with downstream buyers holding back; potash fertilizer demand is sustained by strategic restocking by enterprises; compound fertilizer sales are sluggish, reflecting the characteristics of the industry's off-season. Internationally, steady agricultural demand from Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America has made these regions key destinations for domestic fertilizer exports; there is no global fertilizer shortage, though the circulation of certain high-priced phosphate fertilizers remains tight.

V. Price Linkage Between Upstream and Downstream Products

Upstream raw materials exert strong influence on fertilizer market trends: a sharp rise in sulfur prices this year, combined with high phosphate rock prices, has directly driven up phosphate fertilizer production costs—pushing the industry into losses and providing the primary support for high price levels. Coal prices remain firm, setting a floor for urea prices and limiting the scope for significant declines. Rising international potash FOB prices have increased import costs for potassium chloride, making domestic potash prices resistant to downward movement.

Downstream, where fertilizers directly impact agricultural products, the market for the latter remains lackluster; farmers and distributors show low acceptance of high-priced fertilizers, which in turn constrains the potential for raw material price increases. A tug-of-war dynamic exists between upstream costs (providing a floor) and downstream demand (exerting downward pressure). Price linkage between different product categories is weak, with nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers following independent market trends.

VI. Market Outlook

The market remains in an off-season pattern with persistent divergence across segments. Urea prices continue to fluctuate weakly due to high production, high inventory, and soft demand, with only concentrated overseas tenders offering opportunities for periodic rebounds. Phosphate fertilizer prices remain stuck at high levels—supported by expensive sulfur and phosphate rock—though trading volumes remain low. Potash fertilizer prices are fluctuating within a narrow range; with ample imports, the scope for price movement is limited. Compound fertilizer list prices remain stable, though actual transaction prices have softened slightly.