"Egg prices have gone up..." At around 7 a.m. on June 9th, journalists learned from the early market in Jingshan North Road, Quancheng, Jinan, that: after a long period of depression, in recent times, egg prices have begun to "go against the trend". In addition to bulk eggs, eggs in major shopping malls and supermarkets in Jinan have also seen a price increase. For example, a type of fresh eggs that the reporter previously purchased through the app of a large supermarket for 19.9 RMB, with unchanged specifications and weight, is now priced at 22.9 RMB. Usually, from May to June every year is the off-season for egg consumption.
This is because, as temperatures rise, the willingness of household families to store eggs decreases, coupled with the gradual summer vacation of schools and the weakening of some catering demand, egg prices often show a stable downward trend. However, this year's egg market has shown a "not-so-off-season" phenomenon, with prices rising for several weeks in a row, attracting widespread attention from consumers and the market. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that since the beginning of May, the national egg price has continued to rise, and the retail price in some areas has once again exceeded 10 RMB per kilogram. As the saying goes, all roads lead to Rome. From an economic perspective, the recent rise in egg prices is still the result of changes in supply and demand. As for the current "upside" trend, the reasons are more complex and need to be analyzed from multiple aspects, such as supply reduction, cost factors, market expectations, and the recovery of demand in certain stages.
The number of layer chickens has declined, reducing the supply of eggs in the market. "Come to think of it, it's all because there wasn't much money to be made a while ago, and fewer people are raising chickens." Speaking of why eggs are getting more expensive, Ms. Hu, who has been selling eggs at the Jingshan Morning Market with her husband for many years, said so. It is well known that in the past year, the egg market has experienced a period of low prices for a longer time, resulting in a significant reduction in profits for many farmers or even losses.
Due to the poor profitability of egg production, some farms had to reduce the scale of replacements and dispose of some older layer chickens in advance, leading to a "gap" in the current number of egg-laying chickens. Also, egg production has a clear cycle. It usually takes four to five months from the hatching of chicks to the beginning of egg laying, so when farmers reduce restocking, the market supply does not change immediately, but gradually over several months. Since the beginning of spring this year, the effect of the early reduction in production by farmers has begun to lag and the number of eggs available in the market has decreased, which has provided a basis for the rise in prices. In addition, the high temperature in some areas arrived earlier this year, which also affected the egg production rate of layer chickens. The optimal egg production temperature for layer chickens is generally between 15℃ and 25℃.
When the temperature continues to rise, the "appetite" of layer chickens decreases and the number of eggs produced decreases, which also increases the tension of egg supply to a certain extent. The price of eggs depends not only on supply and demand, but also on cost factors. In the cost of egg production, feed usually accounts for more than 60 percent, and the price fluctuations of feed ingredients such as corn and soybean meal directly affect the production cost. When the production profit is low for a long time, the farmers become more cautious about selling, hoping to recover the previous losses by raising the selling price.
Recently, some regions have seen a "price support" behavior from the farms, which has also supported the market price of eggs. After all, no one wants to make a loss. Therefore, the current rise in egg prices is actually also a kind of market repair for the previous low profit state. Demand is off the season, but it is not significantly contracting. Some people also think that the reason for the rise in egg prices must be the increase in demand, but in fact, the change in demand this year is more of a "weak recovery". On the one hand, as catering consumption and the food processing industry gradually recover, the demand for eggs from enterprises such as pastries, baking, and pre-packaged food remains stable.
Especially in some areas, the demand for eggs before the Dragon Boat Festival is large, which directly drives the increase in phased purchases. On the other hand, eggs, as a basic protein source in residents' daily life, have a strong consumption rigidity. Even if prices rise, the decline in residents' consumption volume is usually limited. Therefore, in the case of a slight decrease in supply, stable demand is enough to push prices higher. From the perspective of price elasticity of demand, eggs belong to "low elasticity goods", consumers will not stop eating or eat less eggs because of a few cents increase per jin, which is also an important reason for the easy price increase. In addition to the actual supply and demand changes, market expectations can also affect the price trend. When the market widely expects future supply to be tight, dealers and wholesalers often build up inventory in advance, increasing stockpiles.
This behavior, while not changing the ultimate level of consumption demand, temporarily amplifies the purchase volume, creating a "hoarding effect" that further drives prices higher. At the same time, some farmers, seeing the price recovery, choose to delay sales in the hope of obtaining higher returns, which will also lead to a reduction in the short-term market flow source. The reduction in supply and the increase in inventory stacking are also factors that contribute to the rapid rise in egg prices.
What about the subsequent price movement? In the short term, the current egg prices still have some support. High temperatures may continue to affect the egg-laying efficiency of layer chickens, and the overall market inventory is still at a low level, so the possibility of a significant decline in prices is not high. But in the medium and long term, the foundation for a sustained and significant increase in egg prices is not solid. On the one hand, as breeding profits improve, farmers will be more willing to restock; on the other hand, as new egg-laying chickens gradually enter the egg-laying period, market supply is expected to increase. If consumer demand does not grow simultaneously, the upward space for egg prices will be limited.
Overall, the increase in egg prices this year against the trend is the result of a combination of factors. Among them, changes in supply are the most fundamental reason. For consumers, the current price increase is more a reflection of the market's process of rebalancing supply and demand; for the poultry industry, it means that after a long period of depression, it is gradually repairing. In the future, as production capacity recovers and the market supply and demand are re-matched, egg prices are highly likely to return to a reasonable range of fluctuations.
According to institutional data, at the beginning of June, in the domestic production and sales market, the egg quotation in the production area increased to 5.28 RMB/500g, and the average egg price in the sales area market was 5.16 RMB/500g. Among them, In the production area market, compared with the low value of 2.9 RMB/500g after the Spring Festival, the egg price has increased by 82.07% this year, and the egg price has set a new high in the past 5 years. And, from the feedback at the grass-roots level, it is understood that many netizens have left messages saying "the egg price has increased to 6 RMB/500g". However, this round of egg price increase may lack momentum, and the peak of the egg price in 2026 may have passed, and the market focus may gradually form a downward situation, and the price lacks further support for increase!
According to the latest data, as of now, the domestic market for egg production and sales has seen a decline in quotations to around 5.1 RMB/500g, with the peak egg prices falling and the focus slightly shifting downward!According to the New Century Fresh Agricultural Products Wholesale Market in Beijing, the current quotation for 44 jin of eggs in a box is between 5.23 and 5.34 RMB/500g, while the quotation for loose eggs is between 5.7 and 6 RMB/500g. And according to the information from the Lu South West region, the quotation for brown-shelled eggs in some rural markets of Zoucheng, Shandong is around 5.5 RMB/500g!
Currently, egg prices have declined from their peak, but in the short term, the extent of price reductions may be limited, and the market has a bottom support! Especially in the supply side, due to the slow pace of baby chicksrestocking at the beginning of the year and the continuous loss in breeding, the number of newly productive eggs is generally not high at present. Moreover, in the existing egg-laying chicken stock structure, the proportion of low-yield old chickens is relatively high. With the rise in temperature, the egg production rate is gradually declining, and the supply of eggs is tight. Currently, the inventory pressure in each link of domestic production and sales is generally not high, and the breeding end still has a mentality of resisting price reductions after continuous losses. Therefore, the current egg price still has support!
However, on the demand side, recently, the demand for egg purchase and sale has slightly cooled down, and the market is mainly based on demand-based purchasing! Due to the increase in the number of hot days, the difficulty of egg storage has increased, the downstream traders' cautious mentality has become stronger, and the egg price has gone up, which has led to the operation of residents' alternative consumption, and the market's enthusiasm for high-priced egg transactions has weakened!
Especially, with the Dragon Boat Festival approaching, the demand for mainstream food companies and e-commerce is gradually weakening, and the market's demand for festive supplies is gradually cooling down, the egg purchase and sale may further weaken, and the support for egg prices will also gradually decline!
On the supply side, due to the post - Lunar New Year peak season for replenishing baby chicks by the breeding sector in February this year, the sales of baby chicks have increased significantly. Moreover, the number of new egg - laying chickens in the country will also increase in June! Coupled with the high egg prices, the profit margin for breeding has increased, and the pace of culling old chickens by the breeding sector has slowed down. At the beginning of June, the average age of culled old chickens was about 504 days. Theoretically, in June, the number of new egg - laying chickens in the country will exceed the number of old chickens that can be culled, and the number of egg - laying chickens will increase compared to the previous month. The tight supply situation in the market will also gradually ease.
From this perspective, under the changing supply and demand pattern, the peak of egg prices in 2026 may have passed, and there is a trend of market decline! However, in the short term, the situation of tight supply exists, the space for egg price decline may be limited, and after the Dragon Boat Festival, as the situation of tight supply eases and seasonal demand returns to the off-season, the focus of egg prices may gradually decline, and the domestic production and sales of eggs may fall into the "4 RMB era"! In the later market, attention should be paid to the changes in the number of new egg-laying chickens and the rhythm of the old ones!
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