I. Analysis of PA66 Market Trends Over the Past Week

Over the past week, the domestic PA66 market has exhibited a trend of slight initial gains followed by a weak, stagnant phase and lackluster trading volume. Price fluctuations remained narrow, characterized by a tug-of-war between cost-side support and sluggish supply-demand dynamics; overall market activity was subdued, with no significant unilateral price surges or plunges.

(I) Cost Side: Marginal Weakening of Support, Though a Floor Remains

This week, raw material costs for PA66 were generally stable to weak. While support for spot prices eased slightly, there was no drastic collapse, maintaining a firm cost floor. Regarding key raw materials, the price of adipic acid—which had previously surged—has recently undergone a continuous, narrow correction with a significant cumulative decline, directly alleviating cost pressures on PA66 production. Meanwhile, new domestic hexamethylenediamine (HMDA) capacity has successfully come online, increasing market supply and completely resolving the previous shortage; HMDA prices have trended slightly downward, further weakening the cost support for PA66. However, the price premium established in the energy sector early in the year has not fully dissipated, keeping the industry's overall cost baseline within a relatively stable range. This limited scope for a sharp decline effectively ruled out the possibility of a deep drop in PA66 prices, resulting in a cost-side scenario characterized by "weak support but resistance to a major drop."

(II) Supply and Demand: Manageable Supply Surplus, Persistently Sluggish Demand

On the supply side, domestic PA66 operating rates remained stable this week, ensuring ample overall supply and a moderate buildup of manufacturer inventories. The impact of earlier plant maintenance has largely been absorbed, and with abundant raw materials, production paces remained steady. Spot supplies were plentiful, and the circulation of standard inventory among traders proceeded normally; however, the influx of some low-priced material exerted downward pressure on higher-priced offerings.

Demand-side weakness was the primary factor driving the market's sluggish performance this week. Downstream sectors—including modification, injection molding, textiles, and tire manufacturing—remain resistant to current PA66 prices, as high costs dampen purchasing enthusiasm. Downstream enterprises generally maintain a conservative procurement strategy of "small, essential orders" and "buying as needed"; large-volume transactions are scarce, and overall trading activity is sluggish. Operating rates in downstream industries remain low with no significant restocking activity, meaning demand fails to drive the market effectively; the overall supply-demand dynamic is characterized by loose supply and weak demand.

II. Market Outlook

In the short term, the domestic PA66 market is likely to continue fluctuating within a narrow range at high levels, with the price center drifting slightly downward. The market will remain in a weak, stagnant state, with significant price surges or plunges unlikely. Regarding costs, raw materials (hexamethylenediamine and adipic acid) are not expected to see major fluctuations; stable cost support will limit the extent of any price decline. However, supply-demand imbalances will not be quickly resolved, and weak downstream demand is unlikely to reverse soon, creating significant resistance to high-priced transactions. The market will remain in a tug-of-war between cost support and demand suppression, likely maintaining a "high price but low volume" pattern, with fluctuating adjustments defining the short-term trend.

III. Short-Term Operational Recommendations

Producers: Prioritize production based on essential demand rather than blindly holding up prices; offer moderate, flexible price concessions to facilitate sales and accelerate inventory turnover. This helps mitigate the risk of shrinking profits due to potential slight price drops and prevents inventory backlogs.

Traders: Maintain a low-inventory strategy; avoid stockpiling in anticipation of price hikes. Focus on rapid turnover and high-volume sales with thin margins to realize cash quickly and avoid risks associated with a downward-trending market. Exercise caution when committing to high-priced forward orders.

Downstream End-Users: Continue the practice of purchasing only what is immediately needed; there is no need to stock up heavily in advance. Current market prices still have some room to pull back slightly; it is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and prices to reach a low point before moderately replenishing inventory in batches. This approach helps lower raw material procurement costs while allowing for prudent inventory management to mitigate the risks associated with price volatility.

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