The domestic asphalt market has recently experienced a strong upward trend. Driven primarily by production cuts and maintenance at refineries—which led to a sharp reduction in supply and pushed market availability to a new cyclical low—a structural supply-demand imbalance has become pronounced. This has fueled a continuous rise in prices, resulting in an overall market characterized by tight supply and firm pricing.

The domestic asphalt market has recently been characterized by low supply and surging prices; market supply has hit a new historical low, while both spot and futures prices continue to climb. Data indicates that the aggregate capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt producers stands at just 13.6%—an all-time low—with a significant week-on-week decline in weekly output, resulting in an acute shortage of available spot market supplies.

The sharp contraction in supply is primarily driven by concentrated maintenance across multiple independent refineries, compounded by the conversion of some units to produce residual oil; furthermore, with refineries facing processing losses and low production enthusiasm, scheduled output for June saw significant declines both year-on-year and month-on-month. Demand trends are divergent: improving weather in the north has allowed infrastructure and road construction to progress steadily, leading to a recovery in essential downstream procurement that provides strong price support.

The market currently remains characterized by an imbalance between supply and demand; although the rainy season in the south has somewhat dampened downstream construction activity, overall demand has shown resilience. In the short term, the situation of low asphalt supply is unlikely to improve rapidly, and the supply shortage will persist; consequently, market prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.