On June 8, the domestic nickel spot market saw a slight rise, with quotes generally increasing across regions. The market is currently characterized by a tug-of-war between bearish macroeconomic factors and bullish industry fundamentals. While a tightening overseas monetary environment exerts external pressure, solid support stems from Indonesia's raw material controls and a global shortage of nickel feedstocks; coupled with a gradual start to downstream restocking, spot trading sentiment has warmed up. Overall, the market exhibits rising prices, buying driven by essential needs, and a mix of bullish and bearish forces.
I. Spot Prices, Regional Trends, and Benchmark Price Performance
As of June 8, the SunSirs benchmark price for 1# nickel stood at 140,600 RMB/ton, marking a significant single-day increase of RMB1,320. Quotes across major markets formed a tiered structure: the mainstream spot price range was 140,000–141,300 RMB/ton (average: RMB140,650 ); quotes in core production regions ranged from 140,050 to 141,450 RMB/ton (average: RMB140,750); and South China saw higher price levels, with quotes between 140,950 and 141,350 RMB/ton (average: RMB141,150 ). Regional price differentials remained stable, and market circulation proceeded normally. Traders showed an increased reluctance to sell, and spot premiums strengthened; however, some participants remained on the sidelines without engaging in large-scale stockpiling, meaning transactions were primarily driven by short-term essential demand and restocking orders.
II. Domestic Production, Inventory, and Supply Landscape
The entire nickel industry chain is currently facing a structural shortage of raw materials. Upstream, the circulation of laterite nickel ore continues to contract due to the dual impact of Indonesia tightening export quotas and insufficient supply from the Philippines; high-quality sulfide nickel ore resources are inherently scarce, and the rollout of new production capacity has been slow. Regarding intermediate products, the release of increased high-grade nickel matte output has been sluggish, while MHP production capacity has passively contracted due to rising sulfur prices, further reducing available supplies. Due to challenges in sourcing raw materials and constraints in production technology, it is difficult to effectively increase the output of recycled nickel. Driven by multiple factors, the overall growth in domestic output remains limited; inventories of various intermediate and finished products across the industry are at low levels, and the elasticity of spot supply is insufficient—factors that serve as the core fundamental support for prices.
III. Domestic and International Demand Situation
While the domestic market is generally in a traditional off-season for consumption, demand patterns show significant divergence. The stainless steel industry has gradually entered a periodic restocking phase, with steady increases in raw material procurement providing a baseline level of demand support. Meanwhile, demand in the new energy sector remains robust; steady production of related products continues to drive the consumption of nickel raw materials. Internationally, tightening monetary conditions have put pressure on risk assets, somewhat dampening speculative activity and purchasing sentiment. However, there has been no significant decline in essential global industrial demand, and standard overseas orders are proceeding smoothly, resulting in a demand landscape characterized by "domestic divergence and overseas stability." Overall, essential demand provides an effective floor despite the off-season context, meaning the conditions for a significant market downturn are not present.
IV. Customs Import and Export Data (April–May)
Data from April and May show a decline—both month-on-month and year-on-year—in imports of nickel ore and nickel intermediate products. The primary cause is Indonesia's tightening of export quotas; combined with the impacts of international shipping and regional policies, this has reduced the volume of overseas material arriving at ports. Imports of refined nickel have fluctuated slightly in line with international prices, with the import mix primarily serving essential demand in high-end manufacturing and the new energy sector. Exports of nickel products have remained steady, supported by stable overseas orders from the industrial and new energy sectors. The overall import-export pattern reflects a tightening of global raw material supplies; given the high domestic reliance on external raw materials, changes in overseas supply directly impact the local market.
V. Price Linkage Analysis Across the Supply Chain
Prices for upstream nickel ore and intermediate products continue to rise; as raw material costs are passed up the chain, the total production cost for refined nickel increases, strengthening the producers' resolve to maintain price levels. Rising sulfur prices have further squeezed profit margins in hydrometallurgical processing, forcing an upward adjustment in quotes for intermediate products and effectively establishing a price floor at the very top of the supply chain. Downstream, prices for finished stainless steel products have remained relatively stable; enterprises procure raw materials based on orders and actual needs, demonstrating a strong capacity to withstand nickel price volatility. Prices for materials supporting the new energy sector remain stable, reflecting smooth price transmission throughout the supply chain. The linkage between upstream and downstream sectors is clear: upstream cost support remains robust, while downstream purchasing follows actual demand, with no significant bottlenecks hindering cost transmission.
VI. Outlook
The fundamental scenario of tightened supply is unlikely to change in the short term, continuing to provide price support; however, rising expectations of overseas interest rate hikes and a strengthening US dollar will continue to cap upside potential, making a sharp, one-sided price surge unlikely.
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