Price Trends

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, the markets for rebar and wire rods showed a trend of fluctuation with a downward bias last week (May 29–June 5); spot price levels edged down compared to the preceding week as the characteristics of the off-season gradually became apparent. As of June 5, the average price of HRB400 rebar in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region stood at approximately 3,176.34 RMB/ton, down 0.53% week-on-week, while the average price of HPB300 high-speed wire rod was 3,367.5 RMB/ton, down 0.37% week-on-week.

Regarding the spot market, as of June 5, the benchmark price for rebar tracked by SunSirs stood at approximately 3,190 RMB/ton, marking a slight decline from the week before last; the benchmark price for wire rod was 3,367.50 RMB/ton, down 0.37% from the beginning of the month (3,380 RMB/ton). By market region, quotes for Pinggang HRB400 rebar (φ16–φ20) in Hangzhou ranged from 3,180 to 3,210 RMB/ton, while resources of the same specifications from Zhongtian and Nantong were quoted at 3,190 RMB/ton; overall, prices were down by 10–20 RMB/ton compared to the weekend before last.

In the futures market, the benchmark rebar contract (RB2610) closed at 3,157 RMB/ton on June 4, down 9 RMB/ton from the previous trading day; open interest rose by 20,593 lots, indicating clear downward pressure driven by an increase in short positions. Overall, rebar futures traded under pressure throughout the period, with market sentiment leaning bearish.

Regarding transaction activity, the volume of construction materials traded last week was generally sluggish, with end-user procurement driven primarily by immediate needs; the market overall was characterized by decent movement of lower-priced goods but poor sales at higher price points. Throughout the week, national trading volumes for construction steel remained low, and market activity was subdued.

Supply side: Last week, the supply of the five major steel products totaled 8.525 million tonnes, a week-on-week decrease of 1.3%. Although total supply edged down, the absolute volume remains high. Data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) shows that during the last ten days of May, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises was 2.006 million tonnes, down 4.3% from the previous period; however, the average daily output of finished steel products rose 3.2% to 2.071 million tonnes, indicating that the supply of finished steel continues to increase. As rebar is a mainstream product, the increase in its supply exerts downward pressure on prices.

From a broader perspective, domestic production of construction steel in May rose by 512,900 tonnes compared to April, an increase of 2.41%. Although profit margins remain decent and output has grown, the market continues to face shortages of specific product specifications. As June begins, some steel mills have scheduled mid-year maintenance, and signs of a marginal tightening in supply are starting to emerge.

Regarding inventory, the total stock of the five major steel products stood at 15.4817 million tonnes last week, marking a week-on-week increase of 0.24%; this shift from decline to growth signals a preliminary turning point toward inventory accumulation. As of May 28, the cumulative inventory of rebar across major sampled cities nationwide totaled 4.8747 million tonnes; while this represents a month-on-month decrease of 0.6954 million tonnes, it is 0.9061 million tonnes higher than the same period last year. Absolute inventory levels remain above those of a year ago, and the pace of destocking has slowed significantly compared to the earlier period.

Demand side: Demand weakened noticeably last week. The latest data shows that the weekly consumption of the five major steel products stood at 8.4877 million tonnes, a week-on-week decline of 3.1%; notably, consumption of construction steel dropped sharply by 7% week-on-week. This significant decline indicates that the deepening of the plum rain season in the south has clearly disrupted the pace of end-user construction and procurement.

The plum rain season has fully set in across southern regions; the increase in hot and rainy weather is directly hindering the progress of outdoor construction projects. A research report by Lange Steel indicates that the expansion of the plum rain zone in the south during June is further disrupting the pace of downstream construction and procurement, highlighting the characteristics of the demand off-season. Xiben Information also notes that June marks the traditional off-season for consumption; the destocking of inventories is slowing further, thereby intensifying supply-side pressure. As it stands, weakening demand during the off-season remains the primary factor suppressing steel prices.

Market outlook

In summary, the market for rebar and wire rods exhibited a fluctuating yet weak trend last week (May 29–June 5); consumption of construction steel dropped sharply by 7% week-on-week, and total inventory shifted from a decline to a rise, signaling a marked weakening in supply-demand dynamics. The construction steel market has officially entered its off-season: the rainy season in the south is suppressing demand, an inventory inflection point is emerging, cost support is marginally diminishing, and market sentiment remains cautious. In the short term, prices are caught in a tug-of-war between upward resistance and a cost-based floor; however, upward momentum is clearly lacking, while downside risks are gradually accumulating. Looking ahead to next week, as the off-season effect intensifies, the supply-demand imbalance may widen, and price levels are expected to drift lower.

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