On April 1, the policy eliminating value-added tax (VAT) export rebates for photovoltaic (PV) products officially took effect. This move is gradually dismantling the long-standing pattern of cutthroat, low-price domestic competition, steering the industry toward a trajectory of high-quality development characterized by superior quality and stable pricing. Despite the policy adjustment driving up export costs, overseas demand remains robust; in April alone, domestic PV module exports to Southeast Asia surged by 267% year-on-year, while cumulative exports across all PV product categories rose by 43% during the January–April period. These impressive foreign trade figures underscore the inelastic global demand for PV products amidst the worldwide transition to new energy. This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the current PV market, examining factors such as supply chain production, raw material prices, global competitiveness, and technological evolution.

I. Industrial Production Landscape and the "New Three" Export Categories

Photovoltaics currently stand as a core category among my country's "New Three" export products—alongside new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries—collectively driving the growth of green foreign trade. A well-defined division of labor has emerged within the PV supply chain; mainstream products—specifically silicon wafers, solar cells, and PV modules—constitute the three core categories and the primary drivers of exports. From a production standpoint, global PV manufacturing capacity is highly concentrated, with domestic capacity accounting for over 80% of the total. Production lines across all segments are generally operating at full capacity, with robust overseas order backlogs and high capacity utilization rates. Influenced by the composition of overseas orders, manufacturers are optimizing their product mixes; the share of high-efficiency modules and high-value-added products is rising, while low-power and conventional modules are being targeted at overseas regions with weaker power infrastructure, ensuring production layouts align with diverse global market needs. Simultaneously, the pace of capacity adjustment is accelerating, shifting from mere scale expansion to quality upgrades, with inefficient capacity being phased out in an orderly manner.

II. Price Trends for Core Raw Materials and the Entire Supply Chain

The upstream segment of the PV supply chain primarily encompasses polysilicon and silicon wafers, while auxiliary materials include metals such as silver, aluminum, and copper; raw material prices directly determine the cost of finished modules. Recently, prices for various raw materials have generally trended upward. This, combined with the cost increases resulting from the elimination of export tax rebates, has driven up the overall cost of PV modules. Calculations indicate that the cancellation of export tax rebates increased the unit cost of modules by RMB 0.06–0.07 per watt; combined with rising prices for raw materials such as metals and polysilicon, the cumulative cost increase reached RMB 0.21–0.27 per watt. As of June 5, market prices for mainstream photovoltaic (PV) modules showed a differentiated pattern: high-efficiency modules—such as TOPCon and BC—commanded a technology premium, with transaction prices remaining in the RMB 0.85–0.95 per watt range, while prices for conventional modules were slightly lower; overall, the market moved away from the previous low-price competition zone. Price transmission along the industry chain proceeded smoothly, with upstream raw material cost increases gradually passed on to downstream segments, leading to a more rational industry pricing structure.

III. April Import/Export Data and Overseas Demand Structure

Customs data clearly demonstrates the strong momentum of PV exports; total PV product exports rose by 43% year-on-year from January to April, with module exports to Southeast Asia surging by 267% in April alone. By product category, modules accounted for 67% of total exports, serving as the dominant product; solar cells saw the fastest growth, with their share rising to 18%; and wafers and polysilicon accounted for 9% and 4%, respectively, reflecting a continued shift in the export mix toward high-value-added products. Regionally, ASEAN, Africa, and the Middle East emerged as key growth markets. Notably, exports to Africa grew by nearly 50% year-on-year; local grid conditions suited to lower-power modules made the region a primary destination for older, less efficient products. Meanwhile, European and American markets focused on high-efficiency modules, with stable demand but slower growth rates. Regarding imports, the industry maintained low volumes of core manufacturing equipment and niche auxiliary materials, demonstrating strong self-sufficiency across the entire supply chain and low reliance on foreign raw materials. Following the tax rebate cancellation, overseas customers generally accepted price adjustments, and orders were executed under the new pricing structure; the short-term rush to place orders subsided, and the pace of exports returned to stability.

IV. Analysis of Domestic and International Industrial Competitiveness

The domestic PV industry possesses competitive advantages across the entire value chain, featuring a comprehensive layout ranging from polysilicon to modules. It leads the world in manufacturing processes, cost control, and production capacity, while also benefiting from robust logistics and after-sales systems, resulting in outstanding overall competitiveness. Facing rising costs due to changes in export tax rebates, leading companies have successfully absorbed the pressure by leveraging technological advantages, long-term overseas orders, and integrated production capabilities. Conversely, small and medium-sized manufacturers—lacking core technologies and bargaining power—have seen their orders diverted elsewhere, accelerating an industry landscape where "the strong get stronger while the weak are weeded out."

Internationally, while many countries are accelerating the development of local photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing capacity, constraints related to technology and supply chain ecosystems make it difficult to establish large-scale production in the short term, resulting in continued heavy reliance on imports. Although European and American markets have erected various trade barriers, imports of high-end, high-efficiency products remain stable. Meanwhile, emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa lack complete manufacturing chains, meaning robust demand continues to drive exports from China. Global market competition has shifted from a race to the bottom on price to a comprehensive contest involving quality, technology, and service.

V. Progress in Technological Innovation

Technological iteration has become the core driver of industry growth. Traditional PERC cells are approaching their efficiency limits, while N-type technologies—such as TOPCon, HJT, and BC—are becoming widely adopted, continuously pushing the boundaries of photoelectric conversion efficiency. Major manufacturers are ramping up R&D investment, focusing on areas such as enhancing cell efficiency, optimizing cost-reduction processes, and applying new materials. Innovation is also extending across the supply chain to supporting sectors; PV inverters and energy storage systems are undergoing simultaneous upgrades, making "PV + energy storage" integrated solutions the mainstream choice for overseas projects. Technological upgrades not only command higher price premiums but also improve product adaptability—meeting the demands of diverse solar irradiance and grid conditions across different regions—thereby further consolidating overseas market share.

VI. Outlook on Future Trends

In the short term, overseas distribution channels are entering an inventory digestion phase during the second quarter, leading to a slight slowdown in the pace of PV exports. Module prices remain generally stable, though trends diverge across product categories, with high-efficiency products demonstrating greater price resilience. In the medium term, as global PV installations continue to expand—with annual new installations projected to exceed 500 GW—overseas demand will continue to materialize, driving a steady recovery in export volumes. From a long-term perspective, the new export tax rebate policy is accelerating industry consolidation; the era of cutthroat price competition is ending, and the industry's focus is shifting decisively toward technological innovation and quality improvement. The global PV supply chain landscape is gradually optimizing, with localized support and comprehensive service models emerging as new trends. Product prices are seeing a steady rise, and the industry is evolving toward high-quality, high-value-added development.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.