Driven by expectations of reduced rapeseed yields abroad due to weather conditions, rapeseed oil prices have strengthened. According to SunSirs spot market data, the average market price on June 4 was 10,504 RMB/tonne, up 2.94% from the beginning of the month.

Supply: Near-term rapeseed arrivals and crushing volumes have increased, resulting in ample domestic rapeseed oil supply; however, weather disruptions affecting Canadian and European rapeseed crops have raised expectations of reduced yields for the new season, leading to a tighter outlook for the long term.

Demand: Demand is currently weak due to the off-season for edible oil consumption, with high rapeseed oil prices leading to significant substitution by soybean oil; while biodiesel demand provides slight underlying support, it is insufficient to reverse the weakness typical of the off-season.

In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels driven by weather-related speculation, though upside potential is constrained by rising domestic supplies. In the medium term, the convergence of peak import arrivals and the off-season—combined with a likely retreat in the weather-related price premium—suggests a tendency for prices to fluctuate downward.

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