Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic price of BDO fell from 8,100 RMB/ton to 8,303 RMB/ton between June 1 and June 5. During this period, the price declined by 0.21%; month-on-month, it dropped by 4.95%, and year-on-year, it fell by 1.25%. Supply-demand pressures persist in the domestic BDO market, and weak end-user demand has led to continuous price declines in downstream sectors and mounting cost pressures. Market participants hold a bearish outlook, with actual transactions involving price concessions, resulting in a fluctuating downward trend in the market.
Market Analysis
Regarding supply, plant operations have fluctuated frequently; although Wanhua has restored operating rates, Yongying and Hengli continue their catalyst replacement processes, and Weiyuan has reduced its operating load. Consequently, the industry's capacity utilization rate has declined, providing somewhat stronger support from the supply side. Furthermore, online auction transactions closed at a high of 7,950 RMB/ton, reinforcing suppliers' resolve to stabilize the market. However, the bullish impact of supply-side factors on the BDO market has begun to wane.
Statistics on the operational status of facilities at selected manufacturing enterprises:
|
Region |
Device dynamics |
|
Xinjiang Shuguang Lvhua |
Installed load at 70%. |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
Phase III units shut down, while phases I, II, IV, and V are running stably |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO unit, currently operating around 70-80% capacity |
|
Shaanxi Heimao |
The 60,000-ton annual capacity is operating stably |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The 60,000+70,000-ton unit is operating stably, with a 20-day maintenance planned for June 9; The 70,000-ton unit underwent maintenance on May 9 and completed the major inspection |
|
Inner Mongolia Dongjing Biotech |
Phase I parking in progress; Phase II is operating at 60% capacity, with maintenance scheduled for 50 days on June 10 |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
Currently, the load is 60-70%. The first phase of the unit is scheduled for maintenance for 15 days starting June 10; The second phase is scheduled for maintenance and refill on July 1 for 15 days |
Regarding costs, domestic calcium carbide prices have declined; producers are seeing some inventory accumulation and are adopting flexible sales strategies to accelerate shipments. Meanwhile, methanol prices continue to rise, with inland plants focusing on pre-sales and overselling, while road transport loading faces disruptions in multiple regions. With calcium carbide prices trending down and methanol prices trending up, the impact on BDO costs is mixed.
On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in end-user demand. Amidst the imbalance between supply and demand and difficulties in passing on costs, downstream industries have resorted to price concessions and promotions, leading to a downturn in market conditions across most sectors. Consequently, the demand outlook for BDO is weighed down by bearish factors.
Market outlook
With the price of raw material calcium carbide falling and methanol prices fluctuating within a range, cost pressure on BDO has eased. Operating rates in the downstream PBT and PBAT sectors are set to decline in the coming period, leading to reduced demand. Overall, SunSirs BDO analysts anticipate that the domestic BDO market will trend weakly.
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