According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, MTBE prices fell from 6,175 RMB/ton to 6,075 RMB/ton between June 1 and June 5. This represents a period decline of 1.62%, a month-on-month drop of 4.89%, and a year-on-year increase of 22.42%. The domestic MTBE market is currently operating weakly. Early in the week, market prices saw a moderate decline, weighed down by factors such as falling international crude oil prices. However, after prices retreated to a short-term low, manufacturers showed significantly less willingness to offer price concessions; price volatility narrowed later in the week as the market entered a phase of consolidation.

Regarding costs and crude oil: International oil prices rose. Key bullish factors included ongoing low-intensity friction between the US and Iran, as well as Iranian strikes on targets within Kuwait, which reignited market concerns regarding peace talks and supply risks. As of June 4, the settlement price for the August Brent crude oil futures contract stood at $93.04 per barrel.

On the demand side: International oil prices face downward pressure, and the next round of retail price adjustments for refined oil products is expected to be downward. News remains bearish for the market, increasing sales pressure on refineries; however, high costs limit the scope for price reductions. Demand-side factors for MTBE are predominantly bearish.

On the supply side: Units at Qixiang Tengda and Binzhou Dayou have shut down, leading to a drop in operating rates. Supply-side factors are currently bullish for the market.

As of the close on June 4, the Asian MTBE market closing price was down $13.70/ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices settling at $866.06–$868.06/ton. The European MTBE market closing price fell by $44.75/ton, with FOB ARA prices settling at $999.74–$1,000.24/ton. The closing price for MTBE in the US market fell by $33.04/tonne compared to the previous trading day, with the FOB Gulf Coast price settling at $1,129.18–$1,129.53/tonne (318.83–318.93 cents/gallon).

Market Outlook: Although feedstock prices have declined, they remain at high levels, and cost pressures persist. With no new plant startups or shutdowns, supply is expected to remain stable. Analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the MTBE market will primarily undergo a period of consolidation.

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