Unplanned outages and scheduled maintenance have hit MDI production facilities across multiple overseas regions in quick succession. Major international producers—BASF, Covestro, and Huntsman—have issued price hike notifications, driving up MDI quotes significantly across markets in Europe, the Americas, and Japan. In contrast, the domestic market—supported by robust production capacity and flexible export allocation mechanisms—has seen spot price trends diverge sharply from overseas markets. As of June 5, the SunSirs benchmark price for polymeric MDI stood at 16,233.33 RMB/ton, down 5.8% from the beginning of the month; domestic spot prices remained sluggish and weak, creating a market pattern of "strong overseas, weak domestic."
I. Underlying Causes of Overseas Plant Disruptions, Production/Sales Shifts, and Price Hikes
An unexpected, unplanned outage at an MDI plant in India, combined with supply interruptions for key feedstocks (carbon monoxide and chlorine) at multiple North American production sites, led some facilities to declare *force majeure* and halt operations. Rising costs for upstream raw materials—specifically C3 and pure benzene—further increased production expenses in North America; coupled with scheduled maintenance shutdowns in July, this caused a rapid contraction in overseas supply. Against this backdrop, the three major international manufacturers raised their product quotes: increases ranged from $0.22 to $0.35 per pound in the North American market, while prices in Japan rose by more than $500 per ton.
On the demand side, the overseas downstream polyurethane spray foam industry has been locking in orders and stocking up early, driven by essential, hard-to-substitute demand. A shortage of complementary polyol supplies has further widened the gap in MDI procurement. Pricing mechanisms for overseas trade have shifted from monthly adjustments to flexible bi-weekly negotiations, and expectations of peak-season stockpiling are sustaining the upward price trend, extending the cycle of increases from June through the third quarter. Although new capacity in North America is currently in the pre-commissioning phase, it cannot immediately offset the supply shortfall caused by existing plant shutdowns, leaving the international spot market in a state of persistent tightness. II. Domestic Regional Spot Price, Production, and Inventory Trends
Regarding regional pricing, East China—a core domestic distribution hub—saw mainstream transaction prices for domestically produced polymeric MDI range from 17,000 to 17,500 RMB/ton; while listed prices for foreign-branded material in Shanghai were high, circulating supply remained limited. Shandong, a major production base, quoted ex-factory prices at 15,000 RMB/ton, representing the lowest price point nationwide. In South and Southwest China—key consumption regions—transaction prices rose by 300–500 RMB/ton due to short-haul logistics costs. Pure MDI traded at approximately 24,500 RMB/ton in East China, with regional price differentials remaining within a reasonable range.
On the supply side, new capacity from domestic technical upgrades continued to come online, steadily raising total capacity, while plant operating rates remained at medium-to-high levels with a stable pace of market supply release. Regarding inventory, stocks at both production and distribution levels saw a slight accumulation; ample spot supplies acted as a buffer against imported inflation caused by rising overseas prices—a key factor preventing domestic prices from following suit. Manufacturers flexibly balanced domestic and export sales, diverting surplus stock to overseas markets to further stabilize the domestic spot market.
On the demand side, sectors such as domestic refrigerators/freezers, construction insulation, and footwear polyurethane were in their traditional off-season; downstream manufacturers purchased in small batches based on immediate needs rather than stockpiling, meaning essential demand was insufficient to drive up raw material prices.
III. MDI Customs Import and Export Data for April 2026
In April, domestic MDI import volumes declined year-on-year. Sharp increases in overseas quotes, combined with tight global supply and high international prices, squeezed the arbitrage margin for imports, leading to a significant reduction in supplies from Europe, the US, and Japan. Export trends showed structural divergence: exports to the US dropped sharply year-on-year following the implementation of anti-dumping duties, yet exports to emerging markets—including ASEAN, the Middle East, and South America—continued to grow, resulting in a slight year-on-year increase in total monthly export volume. Leveraging economies of scale and cost advantages, domestic producers absorbed surplus capacity by expanding into emerging markets, solidifying a net-export position that effectively hedged against the pressure of imported price hikes caused by overseas supply disruptions. IV. Analysis of Price Linkage Between Upstream and Downstream Products
Upstream prices for pure benzene and coal-chemical feedstocks have fluctuated due to geopolitical disruptions, causing periodic cost volatility; however, the high proportion of domestic integrated production facilities limits the impact of raw material cost fluctuations on ex-factory costs. Downstream products—such as rigid polyurethane foam, synthetic leather, and adhesives—have weakened amidst the off-season for end-user consumption; the inability to raise product quotes exerts downward pressure on MDI procurement prices. Meanwhile, prices for supporting polyol products remain stable with no signs of the shortages seen overseas, and domestic downstream users can flexibly adjust formulations, further limiting the ability to pass on MDI price increases.
V. Market Outlook
Although overseas plant maintenance continues and international prices remain high, domestic capacity is ample and the downstream off-season persists; consequently, polymeric MDI prices are expected to fluctuate within a weak range. Domestic market trends will be driven primarily by local supply and demand dynamics, as there is insufficient fundamental support for a sharp price surge. Nevertheless, a recovery in orders for refrigerators, cold chain logistics, and thermal insulation building materials may drive a modest rise in prices.
SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.
