As June begins, the domestic potash market enters the traditional off-season for fertilizer application. Spot prices for potassium chloride have generally seen a slight pullback alongside sluggish trading activity. Driven by a modest increase in port inventories and weak downstream willingness to stock up, quotes across various regions have drifted slightly lower; however, low operating rates at domestic mines have created a structural supply tightness, effectively limiting the scope for a sharp price drop. The market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between weakening demand (pushing prices down) and tight supply (providing a floor). Meanwhile, potassium sulfate prices remain stable, supported by raw material costs, resulting in a price trend that diverges from that of potassium chloride. As of June 5, the SunSirs benchmark price for imported potassium chloride stood at 3,528 RMB/ton—down 22 RMB/ton from the previous trading day and marking a cumulative weekly decline of 0.76%—indicating a slight downward shift in spot price levels.

I. Regional Spot Price and Market Performance in Early June

Regional analysis reveals a divergence in pricing between border crossings and coastal ports. For northern border trade, the mainstream transaction price for 62% Russian/Belarusian potash was 3,460 RMB/ton, a single-day drop of 30 RMB/ton. At ports in East and South China, the ex-warehouse price for 60% red granular potash and Laotian potash was 3,510 RMB/ton, down 20 RMB/ton from previous levels. In inland sales regions, prices (based on delivery costs from ports) generally rose by 40–60 RMB/ton, with increasing room for price negotiation. Regarding domestic potash, the ex-factory price for 60% crystalline potassium chloride from Qinghai production areas was 3,310 RMB/ton; with manufacturers releasing limited spot supplies, quotes remained firm, and the price decline was far less pronounced than that of imported products. Overall, trader sentiment is mixed: transactions are limited to essential demand, intermediaries show little interest in stockpiling, and high-priced goods face sluggish sales, whereas lower-priced supplies move relatively smoothly. II. Domestic Production, Port Inventories, and the Domestic-International Demand Landscape

On the supply side, domestic potash producers have generally maintained low operating rates; constrained by equipment maintenance and production costs, manufacturers have limited spot supplies available for release, causing the volume of domestically circulating stock to tighten continuously. While potassium chloride inventories at major national ports have seen a slight rebound, the stock is concentrated among top-tier distributors, leaving little freely circulating spot inventory; this creates a structural pattern of rising overall inventory levels alongside localized supply shortages, providing a floor for prices. Internationally, long-term contracts for the second quarter with major producers like Canada and Belarus have largely been finalized, tightening the supply of spot resources for export and keeping international FOB prices high, which in turn raises domestic import costs.

The pronounced characteristics of the off-season demand period are the primary driver behind the recent slight decline in potassium chloride prices. Domestic compound fertilizer plants have generally reduced production loads, shifting raw material procurement to small, on-demand orders, with few new contracts being signed; meanwhile, fertilizer application for field crops is winding down and the autumn stocking cycle remains distant, leading downstream agricultural input dealers to adopt a wait-and-see approach and reduce inventory accumulation. Overseas, the spring planting season in Southeast Asia and South America is drawing to a close, slowing the pace of international potassium chloride procurement and causing a month-on-month decline in external demand; this further weakens the diversion of domestic supply to exports, as the simultaneous softening of both domestic and international demand suppresses the potential for spot price increases.

III. Potassium Chloride Customs Import and Export Data for April 2026

Customs statistics indicate that domestic potassium chloride imports totaled 1.23 million tons in April, bringing the cumulative import volume for January–April to 5.81 million tons—a significant year-on-year increase of 24.7%. The arrival of large volumes of cargo—shipped in the first quarter—at domestic ports throughout April was a key factor in the slight accumulation of port inventories. The average import price rose year-on-year, as high quotes from overseas mining companies drove up domestic landed costs. Direct export volumes of potassium chloride remain consistently low; April saw only sporadic exports, with domestic consumption primarily met through imports. The combination of large-scale cargo arrivals and the absence of peak-season domestic demand meant that the short-term increase in supply exceeded consumption capacity, serving as the direct trigger for the slight pullback in spot prices.

IV. Analysis of Price Linkage Across the Upstream and Downstream Supply Chain

The landed costs of upstream imported potash ore and border-trade supplies remain in the mid-to-high range for the year; even though spot prices for potassium chloride have retreated slightly, raw material costs firmly establish a price floor, leaving manufacturers with little inclination to significantly lower prices for shipments. Trends for downstream potassium sulfate products are divergent: the delivered price for "water-salt system" potassium sulfate stands at 3,650 RMB/ton, while the ex-factory price for Mannheim-process 50% powder is 4,050 RMB/ton. Supported by high raw material costs, these quotes remain stable, with only high-grade products seeing a minor price reduction of 50 RMB/ton. Meanwhile, sluggish market conditions for agricultural produce have made it difficult to raise ex-factory prices for compound fertilizers; this has forced manufacturers to drive down raw material procurement costs, thereby exerting downward pressure on potassium chloride purchase prices. Demand for fine chemical products such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate remains steady, absorbing a small portion of potassium chloride demand; however, the volume is insufficient to reverse the overall weakness characteristic of the off-season.

V. Market Outlook

Throughout June and July, the domestic potash fertilizer market will remain in its off-season, with little likelihood of a significant rebound in downstream compound fertilizer production rates. Spot prices for potassium chloride are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow, slightly weak range; however, the potential for a sharp decline is limited due to low domestic operating rates, high concentration of port inventories, and cost support from imports.

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