Market Price Overview:

As of June 3, data from SunSirs indicates a propylene benchmark price of 9,004.33 RMB/ton. Reviewing the trend over the past week, propylene prices have fluctuated downward, declining by approximately 1.42% compared to the beginning of the month (9,134.33 RMB/ton). Recent data shows prices oscillating within the 9,000–9,150 RMB/ton range, with the overall price level slowly shifting downward.

Fundamentals and Macroeconomic Environment:

Despite the sluggish performance of spot prices, expectations of national economic stimulus measures or favorable industry developments appear to be brewing; these factors provide a degree of support for the commodities market, effectively limiting the scope for a sharp price decline.

The repeated fluctuation of prices around the 9,000 RMB/ton mark reflects a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream sectors. On one hand, prices face downward pressure due to potentially insufficient follow-through in downstream demand; on the other, cost-side support and macroeconomic expectations make holders reluctant to sell at low prices, resulting in a market stalemate.

Market Outlook

Overall, the propylene market this week has been characterized by "macroeconomic support amidst technical weakness."

Short-term outlook: Propylene prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase. With the price spread indicator remaining negative and at a low level, the market lacks the momentum for a significant rally and is likely to seek support around the 9,000 RMB/ton mark.

Summary: The propylene market is currently in a bottoming-out phase; technical indicators suggest the correction is not yet over, though strong macroeconomic signals provide a cushion for the market. Next week, the focus should be on whether the 10-day moving average turns upward, serving as a key indicator of a potential market recovery.

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