Price Trends
According to price monitoring by SunSirs, stainless steel prices rose and then fell in May. By the end of the month, the spot price of stainless steel stood at 13,633.33 RMB/ton, down 1.15% from the 13,791.67 RMB/ton recorded at the beginning of the month, but up 11.96% year-on-year.
Annual price comparison charts for stainless steel from SunSirs over the past five years show that stainless steel prices mostly declined in June.
Raw materials:
In May 2026, the stainless steel raw material market exhibited distinct trends across different segments. In the nickel sector, driven by Indonesian policy fluctuations and expectations of supply tightening, prices for nickel pig iron (NPI) remained firm at high levels; transaction prices for high-grade NPI (nickel content >11.5%) clustered between 1,145 and 1,160 RMB per nickel unit. However, cost support weakened toward the end of the month after Indonesia clarified that NPI was excluded from its export centralization policy. Regarding stainless steel scrap, prices for 304-grade scrap trimmings retreated due to the combined impact of weakening spot prices for finished products, downward price pressure from steel mills, and lower quotes for molten iron; quotes in East China fell to 10,300–10,400 RMB/ton, though the price floor remained solid given the significant cost advantage scrap holds over NPI. In the chromium sector, the high-carbon ferrochrome market remained sluggish but stable, influenced by a marginal decline in chrome ore prices and the continued ramp-up of production capacity; mainstream quotes in Inner Mongolia held steady at 8,300–8,450 RMB per 50-base-tonne, with trading activity remaining subdued.
Supply side: Supply remains ample. Domestic crude stainless steel production scheduled for May stands at approximately 3.7494 million tonnes, a slight month-on-month increase of 0.06%; however, there is a marked divergence in the product mix. Driven by market profit margins, output of the 300 series rose by 38,600 tonnes month-on-month to 2.0007 million tonnes, whereas production of the 200 and 400 series contracted due to sluggish demand and difficulties in passing on costs. Scheduled cold-rolled production is 1.6202 million tonnes, remaining essentially flat month-on-month.
On the demand side, the landscape is characterized by weak domestic demand alongside emerging bright spots; traditional sectors such as architectural decoration and kitchenware manufacturing remain sluggish, with real estate development investment falling by 7.7% year-on-year during the January–April period. While demand from emerging industries—such as photovoltaic energy storage and hydrogen energy storage and transport—has seen year-on-year growth, the additional volume is insufficient to offset the shortfall in traditional sectors. Regarding exports, trade barriers such as export licensing systems have dampened performance; cumulative stainless steel exports for January–April totaled approximately 1.1972 million tonnes—a year-on-year decline of 28.5%—indicating persistent pressure on the export front.
Stainless steel inventory
Stainless steel inventories fell and then rose in May. By the end of the month, total stainless steel inventories stood at 1.1259 million tonnes, down 0.78% from the previous week.
Market outlook
In summary, on the cost side, nickel ore prices may soften further; coupled with plans by some steel mills to cut production or switch lines to produce nickel matte, support from raw material costs is expected to weaken. On the demand side, as the traditional off-season approaches, downstream willingness to stock up remains low; trading is driven primarily by immediate needs, lacking upward momentum. However, with profit margins having somewhat recovered, steel mills remain inclined to support prices, and the trend of moderate social inventory destocking is likely to continue, providing a price floor. Key factors to monitor include the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore policies, the actual extent of production cuts by major steel mills, the pace of changes in social inventory, and the impact of macroeconomic factors on market sentiment. Looking ahead to June, the stainless steel market is expected to enter a tug-of-war between weakening cost support and deepening off-season demand; overall price levels may shift slightly lower, characterized by range-bound fluctuations.
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