Entering June, the domestic market for technical-grade pesticides showed significant structural divergence, with the two mainstream herbicides moving in opposite directions. Glufosinate-ammonium faced a shortage of spot supplies, with quotes breaking the 50,000 RMB/ton mark and L-glufosinate-ammonium (adjusted to 100% purity) quotes rising above 65,000 RMB/ton. Conversely, glyphosate was weighed down by industry overcapacity, with transaction prices trending downward. This "one rising, one falling" dynamic within the same product segment has become the market's most prominent feature, driven by a combination of export policy changes, overseas planting demand, raw material costs, and inventory cycles. Based on spot quotes, domestic and international demand, April foreign trade data, and supply chain shifts, this short-term structural trend is expected to persist.

I. Early June Spot Market Trends and Regional Quotes

East China, serving as the hub for technical-grade pesticide production and distribution, saw mainstream ex-factory prices for glufosinate-ammonium range from 50,000 to 52,000 RMB/ton; spot supplies were scarce, and traders were reluctant to sell. In the formulation procurement hubs of Shandong and North China, delivered prices rose by approximately 2,000 RMB/ton, though domestic formulators purchased only small quantities to meet immediate needs. South China, leveraging its foreign trade advantages, maintained firm export quotes for technical-grade pesticides, with FOB prices raised in tandem. In contrast, glyphosate quotes weakened across all regions; ex-factory prices in major production areas generally ranged from 23,000 to 24,000 RMB/ton. With high inventory levels at many factories, producers offered flexible price concessions to move stock, causing the price gap between the north and south to narrow.

II. Domestic Production and Global Supply-Demand Landscape

Supply Side

The glufosinate-ammonium industry maintained a high operating rate of over 80%; however, large-scale export orders placed earlier continued to deplete finished product inventories. Both factory spot stocks and market inventories fell to multi-year lows. Additionally, as June brought high summer temperatures, some production facilities scheduled periodic maintenance or reduced operating loads, limiting short-term supply growth. New capacity for L-glufosinate-ammonium is being released gradually but is unlikely to rapidly fill the market gap in the short term. The glyphosate industry possesses ample production capacity; domestic operating rates remain stable, and new capacity continues to come online. The industry has long suffered from overcapacity, with the accumulation of factory inventories acting as the primary factor suppressing prices.

Demand Side

Internationally, soybean and corn crops in South America have entered their growing season, and the planting area for glufosinate-resistant genetically modified crops is expanding year by year; consequently, overseas procurement demand from Brazil, Argentina, and Canada is steadily rising. Agricultural input distributors in Southeast Asia are stocking up, making essential overseas demand the core support for glufosinate. While overseas demand for glyphosate remains stable, the proliferation of global substitutes is diverting procurement volumes. Domestically, the market for field crop herbicides is entering a seasonal off-peak period; formulators are adopting a "wait-and-see" approach regarding high-priced glufosinate, delaying bulk purchases. Glyphosate demand is limited to routine, essential needs due to low price levels, which is insufficient to absorb the excess capacity.

III. Customs Import and Export Data for Pesticide Technicals (April 2026)

In April, foreign trade in herbicide technicals showed structural divergence. Glufosinate export volumes surged significantly month-on-month and rose 27% year-on-year, driven primarily by a rush to lock in orders and secure stock before the April 1st cancellation of export tax rebates, resulting in a concentration of orders from South America and Southeast Asia. Glyphosate exports saw a slight year-on-year decline of 3.2%, as overseas substitutes encroached on its established market share. Regarding raw material imports, the average import prices for phosphorus-based intermediates—such as yellow phosphorus and phosphorus trichloride—rose year-on-year; driven by rising international chemical costs, domestic production costs for technicals increased correspondingly. Import volumes of supporting chemical raw materials for pesticides declined slightly year-on-year, as overseas plant maintenance constrained supply. Overall foreign trade data confirms that the window for tax rebates triggered a short-term export spike, serving as the key driver behind the rapid, short-term surge in glufosinate prices. IV. Analysis of Price Linkage Between Upstream and Downstream Products

Prices of upstream chemical raw materials—such as yellow phosphorus, phosphorus trichloride, and methanol—remained high throughout the year, showing significant year-on-year increases. This created a rigid cost floor for glufosinate-ammonium, making manufacturers reluctant to sell at low prices. Glyphosate faced similarly high raw material costs; however, due to overcapacity, this cost support failed to translate into price hikes. Downstream formulation markets showed divergent trends: glufosinate-ammonium formulations saw ex-factory price increases mirroring those of the technical grade, though high prices constrained terminal agricultural input dealers, slowing the pace of market stocking. Conversely, glyphosate formulations weakened in tandem with low raw material prices, while terminal retail prices remained stable. Additionally, the rapid ramp-up of L-glufosinate-ammonium (refined glufosinate) production capacity is expected to gradually divert market demand away from traditional racemic glufosinate-ammonium in the long term, exerting persistent downward pressure on the latter's price premium.

V. Market Outlook

Glufosinate-ammonium manufacturers have yet to fully clear their backlog of export orders. Coupled with supply constraints resulting from plant maintenance and the approach of a new stocking season in South America, spot prices have held firm above 50,000 RMB/ton. While a sharp decline is highly unlikely, the potential for significant price surges is limited by a "wait-and-see" attitude among domestic formulation buyers facing high prices.

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