With the rapid development of the artificial intelligence industry, the price of tin has shown a significant increase. Analysts believe that in the medium and long term, tin, as a "compute metal", has a solid upward support base.

We often say that rare things are precious. In the world of metals, there is a metal - tin, which has become a key basic material in advanced packaging processes of semiconductors because of its good electrical conductivity, low melting point and strong welding stability. The more powerful the computing power, the more densely the chips are stacked, the more tin is consumed, hence it is called the "metal of computing power".

Rises 40% in half a year: "Calculating power metal" tin price at a historic high

With the rapid development of the artificial intelligence industry, the price of tin, a metal, has increased significantly, from 300,000 yuan per ton in November of last year to about 420,000 yuan per ton at present, a rise of 40% in half a year, reaching a historical high. What changes in supply and demand does the high price of tin reflect in the industry?

At the finished goods warehouse of a tin smelting plant in Laibin, Guangxi, journalists saw workers loading bales of tin ingots, each weighing a ton, onto trucks. After completing the inspection, this batch of tin ingots will soon be shipped to downstream enterprises.

The smelting end is booming in production and sales, but it is difficult for upstream mining to increase rapidly. Journalists visited the Dazhong Tin Mine in Gejiu, Yunnan, and the mine's person in charge told reporters that the mine's production capacity is constrained by the mining system and rigid safety regulations, and it maintains a balanced mining all year round, even if the downstream demand surges, it cannot expand production rapidly.

It is understood that China is the world's largest producer and consumer of refined tin, but due to factors such as the decline in the grade of domestic tin mine resources, about two-thirds of the tin mines used for smelting in China currently rely on imports.

Since last year, tin supplies in major producing countries such as Myanmar, Indonesia, and the DRC have been affected by export restrictions, geological disasters, and other factors, leading to a shortage in tin availability. The industry widely believes that the rise in tin prices will be a long-term trend in the next one to two years.

Analysts believe that in the medium to long term, tin, as a "compute metal", has a solid upward support base.

New demand is rising strongly; the tin industry is accelerating technological iteration.

For a long time, tin has been mainly used in traditional consumer electronics, tin-plated steel sheets and other fields. However, today, AI servers, optical modules, and advanced packaging of semiconductors have become the largest sources of incremental demand for tin. The emerging track not only drives the continuous increase in the overall consumption of tin, but also forces enterprises in the middle and downstream to accelerate technological upgrading and high-end transformation.

In a company in Shenzhen that specializes in the assembly of printed circuit boards, journalists witnessed the production lines operating at full capacity 24 hours a day, manufacturing circuit board components needed for AI servers and optical modules. The company's management told journalists that the surge in orders along the AI track has directly led to a significant increase in their tin procurement.

Industry research shows that AI single - server tin consumption is more than three times that of traditional servers. And unlike traditional consumer electronics, which are highly sensitive to tin prices, emerging high - end track products have a stronger price tolerance because they have higher added value.

Emerging demand is supporting the rise in tin prices, while also forcing tin upstream and downstream enterprises to start technological iteration and high - end transformation.

Reporters visited and conducted research, finding that many enterprises in the middle and downstream of the tin powder, tin paste, and tin ball industries are striving to break through technical bottlenecks and develop towards ultra-fine, high-purity, and high-precision directions.

In the interview, many enterprise heads also said that as the demand structure in the downstream changes, the tin metal industry chain will gradually develop towards high R&D investment and high technology output, which also means that the industry chain will usher in a new round of reshuffle.

Resource stocks are tightening; the tin industry chain is accelerating towards circular development.

The global tin mine resources are limited, and in the context of sustained demand growth, what kind of development changes will the tin industry chain face?

The industry expects that at the current mining rate, global tin mines will only last for 15 years, and domestic tin mines will only last for about 12 years. Due to the insufficient stock of primary resources and the increased uncertainty of overseas supply, many production enterprises have begun to turn to tin metal recycling.

At present, the leading tin enterprises in our country have fully laid out the circular industry chain, creating a closed loop of "mining, smelting, waste recovery, and regenerated utilization", improving the recovery rate of waste circuit boards, tin dross, and tailing through technological breakthroughs, and continuously increasing the supply ratio of regenerated tin.

At the recently held 2026 China Tin Industry Annual Meeting, many participants believe that in addition to the recycling transformation at the resource end, the production end should also accelerate the transformation to high-end.

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