According to monitoring data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, corrugated paper prices continued their volatile upward trajectory this week, with the overall price level steadily rising. As of June 4, the average ex-factory price for 140g corrugated base paper stood at 2,901 RMB per ton—an increase of 1.01% compared to the average price recorded on May 31.

Cost Side: This week, waste paper prices in the Zhejiang region halted their upward trend and began to retreat; domestic paper mills subsequently lowered their waste paper purchasing prices in tandem. On June 4, the average purchasing price for Grade A waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang was 1,802 RMB per ton—a decrease of 1.85% compared to the average price on May 31. On June 1, over forty domestic paper mills simultaneously reduced their waste paper purchasing rates. This recent price correction in the waste paper market was largely driven by paper mills having replenished their raw material inventories to sufficient levels for the current stage; this led to a short-term surge in incoming waste paper deliveries and a reduced willingness among mills to procure additional materials during the traditional off-season. However, persistent rainfall continues to disrupt offline waste paper collection channels, making it difficult for supply volumes to expand significantly; consequently, the potential for a deep plunge in waste paper prices appears limited.

Supply Side: In early June, major domestic paper mills collectively initiated shutdowns and production cuts. Nine Dragons Paper's Taicang base underwent machine maintenance shutdowns from June 1 to June 7, while its Hebei base began a 20-day maintenance period on June 6. Similarly, Shanying, Jingxing, and Rongcheng simultaneously executed their scheduled monthly maintenance plans. As a result, the effective production capacity of the corrugated paper industry contracted temporarily during the week, leading to a reduction in spot market arrivals. Currently, spot inventories remain under pressure and lean; with no significant surplus available for large-scale sell-offs, paper mills demonstrate a strong resolve to hold firm on their pricing. Furthermore, a flurry of price-hike notices issued by leading paper mills in early June—followed by corresponding price increases from small and medium-sized paper enterprises—has driven up actual spot transaction prices, thereby propelling overall market quotations upward.

Demand Side: In the near term, demand has received a temporary boost from pre-stocking activities ahead of the "6.18" e-commerce shopping festival; consequently, orders for food packaging and express delivery cartons have shown a slight month-over-month recovery. Large and medium-sized packaging manufacturers are replenishing their inventories in small batches on an "as-needed" basis to mitigate the risk of rising base paper prices. This steady stream of demand-driven transactions is providing a floor for spot market activity, helping to prevent paper prices from experiencing a rapid collapse after their recent surge. Meanwhile, downstream players anticipate a short-term softening in waste paper prices; consequently, their willingness to stockpile large quantities remains weak, with most opting for a "buy-as-needed" strategy. This approach has curbed the magnitude of price surges for corrugated paper, resulting in a market trend characterized by gradual appreciation rather than explosive growth.

Analysts at SunSirs (Business Society) observe that notices regarding mill maintenance and price hikes have been arriving in rapid succession recently. Although waste paper prices initially trended downward, the decline has since slowed, halted, and stabilized, establishing a firm floor for production costs. Even as the inventory-building phase for the "6.18" shopping festival draws to a close, sporadic restocking driven by immediate demand persists. Coupled with low inventory levels at paper mills and an unwavering resolve to uphold pricing, the spot market remains more prone to rising than falling. Consequently, corrugated paper prices are projected to trade within a narrow, slightly bullish range in the short term.

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