Price trend
According to SunSirs' Commodity Market Analysis System, from May 25 to May 29, domestic BDO prices declined from 8,404 RMB/ton to 8,166 RMB/ton. During this period, prices fell by 2.86%, representing a month-on-month decrease of 4.16%, while showing a year-on-year increase of 0.73%. Supply-demand pressures persist within the domestic BDO market; furthermore, market conditions across various downstream industries have softened—compressing profit margins—which has weighed negatively on market sentiment and driven the market's price center to continue its downward trend.
Market analysis
Regarding the supply side—specifically plant operations—activities such as catalyst replacements and production ramp-ups are both currently underway. Consequently, the overall volume of supply remains largely unchanged, offering only moderate support to the market. The bullish influence stemming from the BDO supply side is beginning to wane.
Statistics on the operational status of selected production facilities:
|
Region |
Device dynamics |
|
Xinjiang Shuguang Lvhua |
Installed load at 70%. |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
Phase III units shut down, while phases I, II, IV, and V are running stably |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO unit, currently operating around 70-80% capacity |
|
Shaanxi Heimao |
The 60,000-ton annual capacity is operating stably |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The 60.000+70,000-ton unit is operating stably, with a 20-day maintenance planned for June 9; The 70,000-ton unit underwent maintenance on May 9 and completed the major inspection |
|
Inner Mongolia Dongjing Biotech |
Phase I parking in progress; Phase II load is 50%. |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
Load 60-70%; The planned rotation inspection is currently scheduled for 25 days in July |
Regarding the cost side: In the calcium carbide sector, rising prices for the raw material—semi-coke—are providing strong cost-side support for calcium carbide prices. In the methanol sector, however, the market is trending weak. With calcium carbide raw material prices improving while methanol prices remain soft, the overall cost-side impact on BDO is mixed.
On the demand side—specifically within downstream sectors—operating rates for GBL and PU slurries have declined, resulting in a slight reduction in raw material consumption and intensifying supply-demand pressures within the industry. Concurrently, weak performance in end-market demand has driven market trends across multiple downstream industries further downward; with profit margins being squeezed, bearish sentiment is being transmitted upstream, fostering a strong inclination among buyers to bargain down raw material prices. Consequently, the demand outlook for BDO is currently weighed down by bearish factors.
Market Outlook:
Supply has contracted while demand remains steady; however, with existing inventories still awaiting clearance, the prevailing sentiment among major industry players regarding both procurement and sales remains bearish. Due to insufficient fundamental support and sluggish cost transmission throughout the industrial chain, the dominant mindset among stock holders is to offload inventory, thereby dragging the market's price center lower. In summary, analysts at SunSirs (Business Society) anticipate that the domestic BDO market is likely to experience a further decline.
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