Price Trends:

According to monitoring by the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the market for #1 tin ingots in the East China region experienced a significant surge this month (May 1–29). At the beginning of the month, the average market price stood at 386,910 RMB/ton; as of May 29, the average price had risen to 424,960 RMB/ton—an increase of 9.83%.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

The primary catalyst behind the sharp surge in tin prices in mid-May originated on the supply side. The resumption of tin mining operations in Myanmar's Wa State continued to fall short of market expectations; while the market had widely anticipated a resumption of output in the second quarter, the actual implementation has been repeatedly delayed. Concurrently, the rainy season in Indonesia disrupted refined tin exports, and LME tin inventories declined continuously throughout the first half of May, thereby exacerbating concerns regarding raw material shortages. Capital flows capitalized on this situation to rapidly drive up futures prices, while the physical market witnessed a brief period of reluctance to sell.

Actual downstream consumption has failed to keep pace. Solder manufacturers and end-users—specifically those in the photovoltaic ribbon and consumer electronics sectors—have demonstrated extremely low tolerance for high prices, limiting their purchasing solely to meeting immediate, essential needs. The slow depletion of social inventories indicates that weak demand remains the fundamental constraint; indeed, the characteristic feature of a "lackluster peak season" persisted throughout the entire month of May.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, tin prices are highly likely to maintain a volatile, downward-biased trend. Looking ahead to June and the third quarter, tin prices will most likely enter a phase of volatile bottom-building.

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