According to monitoring data from SunSirs, the domestic Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market last week exhibited a narrow, oscillating trend characterized by an initial decline followed by a subsequent rise.

Price Trends: At the beginning of last week (May 26), the price stood at 5,890 RMB/ton. It subsequently experienced slight declines for three consecutive days, touching a weekly low of 5,834 RMB/ton on May 29. By the weekend, prices stabilized and rebounded; as of June 1, the quoted price reached 5,846.00 RMB/ton—a 0.21% increase compared to the beginning of the month.

The market's ability to maintain high price levels last week—despite a backdrop of weakening demand—was primarily driven by the interplay of the following factors:

Cost Side: The cost of raw gas for upstream liquefaction plants remained persistently high, resulting in elevated production costs. To avoid losses, liquefaction plants generally adopted a strategy of holding firm on prices; this served as the core driver ensuring that prices did not fall significantly during the week and subsequently rebounded over the weekend.

Demand Side: Downstream receiving terminals and refueling stations demonstrated weak purchasing interest, opting mostly for "as-needed" replenishment rather than showing enthusiasm for large-scale stockpiling. This "buy-on-strength, sell-on-weakness" mentality limited the upside potential of prices, resulting in a relatively weak rebound.

Supply Side: Although instances of maintenance and production restrictions occurred, overall supply remained relatively stable. On the demand side, seasonal factors led to the market entering a traditional "off-season." Consequently, the market is currently in a state of "weak equilibrium," with price fluctuation ranges becoming compressed.

Overall Outlook: In all likelihood, the LNG market this week will continue its oscillating, consolidating trend—characterized by a "ceiling above and a floor below." In the short term, if the 10-day moving average successfully turns upward and converges with the 20-day moving average, it would confirm the establishment of a rebound trend, potentially allowing prices to test the 5,900 RMB/ton threshold. Conversely, if there is no significant improvement on the demand side, prices may continue to fluctuate and "grind along the bottom" within the 5,800–5,850 RMB/ton range.

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