According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, from May 25 to May 29, MTBE prices fluctuated from 6,425 RMB/ton—initially rising before falling—to settle at 6,237 RMB/ton. During this period, prices declined by 2.92%, with a maximum fluctuation amplitude of 4.77%; on a month-on-month basis, prices fell by 1.38%, while year-on-year, they rose by 22.30%. Buoyed by international crude oil prices trading at high levels and a rising gasoline market, market sentiment leaned bullish, prompting a tentative upward push in prices. However, as prices climbed to elevated levels, the willingness to take delivery diminished. This factor, coupled with a pullback in international crude oil prices and a gradual cooling of gasoline demand, saw the MTBE market enter a downward-trending, volatile channel.
Cost Side (Crude Oil): International oil prices declined, driven primarily by bearish factors: market optimism regarding the potential for a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, an easing of geopolitical tensions, and consequently, diminished concerns regarding supply risks. As of May 28, the July contract for Brent crude oil futures closed lower, settling at 93.71 USD/barrel.
Demand Side (Downstream): Amid the weak downward trend in international crude oil futures, the finished oil market generally appeared sluggish. Refineries focused primarily on moving volume; however, divergent performance in end-user demand led to a split market among independent refineries—with gasoline performing strongly while diesel remained weak. Traders in the intermediate supply chain adopted a conservative approach to locking in prices and placing orders, while downstream buyers maintained low inventory levels, resulting in a lackluster atmosphere for market trading and transactions. Overall, the demand side for MTBE was influenced by bearish factors.
Supply Side: The production unit at Huayi Chemical resumed operations; however, shutdowns at facilities such as Zhonghaojian, Dongying Shenchi, and Oriental Hongye impacted overall output. Consequently, the comprehensive operating rate of production units declined compared to the previous period. The supply side for MTBE was influenced by bullish factors.
As of the close on May 28, the closing price in the Asian MTBE market fell by 52.78 USD/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices settling between 780.3 and 782.3 USD/ton. In the European MTBE market, the closing price rose by 1.75 USD/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices settling between 1033.24 and 1033.74 USD/ton. The closing price in the U.S. MTBE market rose by $16.96 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with the FOB Gulf price settling at $1,111.50–$1,111.86 per ton ($313.84–$313.94 per gallon).
Market Outlook: Raw material prices remain at elevated levels—specifically, the prices of various feedstock gases are high—meaning cost pressures persist. Furthermore, the retail price caps for refined oil products are expected to undergo a significant downward adjustment in the current cycle; consequently, this bearish news weighs negatively on the regional oil market. Refineries are shifting their marketing strategies to prioritize sales volume, making it highly probable that prices will experience volatile declines. Analysts at SunSirs (100ppi) believe that the MTBE market is likely to undergo a period of consolidation.
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