According to Sina Finance, the "black swan" event of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East—emerging since the beginning of 2026—has forcefully reversed the downward trend in the chemical market. Driven by the combined influence of multiple factors, the price center of gravity in the PP market has shifted significantly upward, drawing widespread attention across the industry.

Recently, the domestic PP market has witnessed a strong upward rally. Influenced by persistently tight supply resulting from concentrated plant maintenance shutdowns, domestic polypropylene (PP) prices have continued to surge since the second quarter of 2026.

Underpinning this price strength is the sustained low operating rate within the industry. May saw the domestic PP sector enter a wave of large-scale maintenance shutdowns; scheduled maintenance at numerous leading enterprises took place concurrently, directly exacerbating the contraction in supply. The cumulative capacity affected by maintenance this month exceeds 1.84 million tons; with maintenance periods for some units lasting over a month, the pressure on market supply is unlikely to ease in the short term.

Some units face extended maintenance periods—for instance, multiple units at Sinopec-SK (Zhonghan Petrochemical) and Shenhua Ningmei have maintenance schedules exceeding one month. Furthermore, restart dates for certain units remain unconfirmed, meaning the impact of this supply contraction is expected to persist into June and July.

As it stands, the PP market is characterized by a concentration of units undergoing maintenance—a situation compounded by low operating rates driven by tight raw material supplies. Consequently, the current pattern of tight market supply is unlikely to be reversed in the short term. Although some units undergoing short-term maintenance are scheduled to resume production around the end of May, the majority of large-scale units face longer maintenance cycles; thus, domestic PP supply is not expected to see a significant increase in volume before June.

While downstream demand remains relatively weak—thereby limiting market transaction volume—the market continues to adhere to a core dynamic of "tight supply driving up prices" against the backdrop of a spot market shortage. In the short term, PP prices are highly likely to continue fluctuating at elevated levels. Future market trends will require close monitoring of the progress of plant restarts following maintenance, shifts in upstream raw material supply, and the strength of follow-through demand from downstream sectors.

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