In May 2026, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market generally exhibited a volatile downward trend; throughout the month, the market's price center of gravity continued to shift lower, trading activity remained subdued, and market participants generally maintained a cautious outlook. According to monitoring data from SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, from May 1 to May 28, domestic 1,3-butadiene prices declined from 13,200 RMB/ton to 12,066.67 RMB/ton, marking a price decrease of 8.59% over the period.

Cost Perspective:

In May, the cost support for 1,3-butadiene continued to weaken, serving as one of the primary drivers behind the downward trend in market prices. As a byproduct of ethylene cracking, the price trajectory of 1,3-butadiene is highly correlated with that of international crude oil and naphtha. This month, international crude oil prices experienced volatile weakness—influenced by diminishing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—while naphtha prices trended lower in tandem. Consequently, feedstock costs for the refining and petrochemical sectors faced broad downward pressure, providing insufficient underlying support to the 1,3-butadiene market. Concurrently, profit margins across the broader chemical industry chain remained ample; with domestic cracking units operating stably, there was insufficient impetus to pass on raw material costs to 1,3-butadiene pricing. As of mid-May, theoretical profit margins for 1,3-butadiene extraction units had declined by 37% compared to the previous month, while margins for oxidative dehydrogenation units fell by approximately 43%. This further erosion of cost-side support continued to drive a steady softening in 1,3-butadiene market quotations. As of May 27, the settlement price for the July contract of US WTI crude oil futures stood at $88.68 per barrel, while the settlement price for the July contract of Brent crude oil futures was $94.29 per barrel.

Supply Side:

In May, the operational status of domestic 1,3-butadiene facilities was mixed; while some production units were undergoing maintenance—leading to a localized contraction in supply—several other units successively resumed production, effectively offsetting the supply reductions caused by the maintenance activities. Overall, market supply remained ample, with abundant replenishment of circulating stock. The pace of shipments within the market was sluggish, trading volumes fell short of expectations, and the rate at which companies were depleting their inventories was slow. To accelerate inventory turnover, producers and traders alike continuously softened their price quotations. Furthermore, the steady arrival and entry of imported goods into the market further bolstered domestic supply, ensuring that overall supply pressure within the industry remained significant—a factor that exerted substantial downward pressure on market prices.es plummeted to a cyclical low; downstream manufacturers of adhesives and coatings seized the opportunity to engage in concentrated restocking at these low price points, resulting in a concentrated release of essential demand that directly drove a rapid rebound in prices.

As of May 28, the posted price for 1,3-butadiene across Sinopec's various sales subsidiaries stands at 12,000 RMB/ton—a reduction of 800 RMB/ton compared to the price of 12,800 RMB/ton recorded on April 28.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit is operating normally, with 280 tons available for external sale at a floor price of 11,600 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical's 90,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit is operating normally, with 336 tons available for external sale at a starting bid price of 11,800 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

In May, overall downstream demand for 1,3-butadiene remained sluggish, emerging as the primary factor dragging down market performance. Operating rates across major downstream sectors—such as synthetic rubber and latex—remained low, reflecting a general lack of production enthusiasm within the industry. The market atmosphere in the end-use rubber products and tire sectors was subdued; with the turnover rate of finished goods slowing down, enterprises widely faced issues of inventory accumulation. Consequently, downstream manufacturers adopted a more conservative procurement stance, largely adhering to a "buy-as-needed" strategy driven solely by immediate requirements. Their willingness to enter the market to replenish stocks was low, and they simultaneously exerted strong pressure to drive down raw material prices. With transmission along the industrial chain largely impeded, a strong "wait-and-see" sentiment prevailed in the market; instances of concentrated stockpiling were rare, and the demand side consistently failed to provide any effective boost to market fundamentals.

According to monitoring by the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of May 27, the market for BR in the East China region was undergoing a weak consolidation. With international crude oil prices fluctuating within a narrow range and downstream buyers adopting a wait-and-see attitude, supply prices for BR were lowered, leading spot market vendors to slightly reduce their quoted offers. Currently, prices for BR from Daqing, Yangzi, and Qilu are quoted between 14,650 and 14,900 RMB/ton, while certain private brands are quoted in the vicinity of 14,500 to 14,700 RMB/ton.

Market Outlook:

Based on current fundamentals, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market is expected to maintain a volatile yet generally weak trajectory in the short term. The erratic nature of international crude oil prices makes it difficult for the cost side to provide rapid and robust support; furthermore, with downstream demand showing no significant signs of improvement, market confidence among bullish investors remains low, thereby limiting the potential for price appreciation. However, with an anticipated increase in industry plant maintenance shutdowns next month, market supply is expected to gradually tighten, which should provide a certain degree of floor support for market prices. As raw material prices gradually retreat to lower levels, the profitability of downstream industries is poised for recovery; consequently, production and procurement intentions are likely to rebound steadily. Should crude oil prices subsequently stabilize and firm up, the combined tailwinds—including cost-side support, tightening supply, and recovering demand—are expected to help the domestic 1,3-butadiene market gradually halt its decline and stabilize, eventually entering a phase of volatile recovery over the medium term. Moving forward, close attention should continue to be paid to key factors such as international crude oil trends, plant maintenance schedules, downstream industry operating rates and order volumes, and changes in port inventories.

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