According to data from SunSirs' "Spot Connect" service, domestic prices for commercial live pigs (three-way crossbreeds) generally fluctuated with a downward bias throughout May 2024. The average price stood at 9.83 RMB/kg on May 1st and 9.57 RMB/kg on May 28th, marking a decline of 2.64% over the month.

Consumer spending during the Labor Day holiday provided only limited stimulus to demand in the downstream meat market. Under the pressure of strong supply and weak demand within the live pig market, domestic pig prices trended lower once again during early May. By mid-May, large-scale breeding enterprises had reduced their live pig slaughter volumes; however, demand in the downstream meat market remained sluggish, leading the live pig market into a state of "double weakness"—characterized by both reduced supply and reduced demand. Consequently, domestic pig prices entered a stalemate, struggling to find direction amidst a balance of upward and downward pressures, and generally drifted sideways with minor fluctuations. In late May, as domestic weather gradually turned warmer, demand in the downstream meat market became even more subdued. Domestic pig prices subsequently came under increased pressure, continuing to fluctuate at low levels with a downward bias.

Domestic corn prices generally remained stable with a slight downward bias throughout May. As of May 28th, domestic corn prices had edged down by 0.49% for the month. The domestic "pig-to-grain price ratio" (a key profitability indicator) hovered around 4.2:1 in early May; by the end of May, it had slipped slightly to approximately 4.1:1. With the ratio trending lower once again, the extent of financial losses within the domestic live pig breeding industry continued to deepen.

A live pig market analyst at SunSirs observes: "Throughout May, the domestic live pig market witnessed intense interplay between supply and demand forces, resulting in a general trend of fluctuating prices that gradually ground lower. On balance, demand in the downstream meat market is unlikely to recover rapidly in the short term, while overall live pig inventory levels remain high. Consequently, the current market imbalance—characterized by strong supply and weak demand—is unlikely to be alleviated in the near future. At the same time, government reserve procurement policies are expected to provide a certain level of 'floor support' to domestic pig prices. As a result, the overall scope for price fluctuation—whether upward or downward—is expected to be limited in the coming period. We anticipate that in June, domestic live pig prices will continue to fluctuate primarily within the range of 10 RMB/kg or lower."

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