Isooctanol Prices Rebounded and Underwent Correction

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the price of isooctanol stood at 8,033.33 RMB/ton on May 26. This figure represents an 8.71% decline from the 8,800 RMB/ton recorded at the beginning of the month—a trajectory characterized by an initial rise followed by a subsequent fall. The price drop was driven by a decline in propylene prices (leading to reduced production costs), coupled with a sluggish downstream market and weak demand for isooctanol. Conversely, a reduction in operating rates among isooctanol manufacturers led to a tightening of supply, causing prices to halt their decline and stabilize.

Propylene costs remained elevated, and support was weakening

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, May saw an increase in the resumption of operations at propylene production facilities; consequently, supply rose while demand remained sluggish, causing propylene prices to fluctuate downward. However, uncertainties surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may be propping up raw material costs, preventing prices from falling further. Propylene prices therefore remain at relatively high historical levels, yet—as crude oil markets retreat—there is insufficient support to sustain any upward price momentum. Consequently, the marginal cost-side support for isooctanol is beginning to wane.

Isooctanol Operating Rates Declined 

At the end of April, operating rates at isooctanol enterprises rose to 98%; however, in May, plant operating rates fell to 70%, resulting in a reduction in the supply of isooctanol. With supply tightening, the upward pressure supporting isooctanol prices has intensified.

Downstream DOP Prices Fluctuated Downward

According to the business agency's commodity market analysis system, as of May 26, the price of DOP stood at 9,300.83 RMB/ton. This represents a fluctuating downward trend from the price of 10,050.8 RMB/ton recorded on May 1—a decline of 7.46%. The downstream plasticizer market has performed lacklusterly; downstream manufacturers are limiting their purchasing to immediate necessities, showing no inclination to place large orders for inventory stocking or speculative hoarding. Previously, exports served as a key bright spot supporting demand; however, octanol export volumes declined in May—estimated at approximately 20,000 tons—marking a potentially significant drop compared to April figures. With both domestic demand and exports showing weakness—compounded by the continuous release of new isooctanol production capacity—the supply-demand landscape is deteriorating, exacerbating the market's state of oversupply for isooctanol.

Market Outlook:

According to an analyst specializing in octanol product data at SunSirs, the significant decline in isooctanol operating rates in the short term has led to a tightening of supply. This factor provides substantial support for rising prices, thereby alleviating downward pressure on isooctanol; consequently, prices are expected to stabilize in the near term. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, however, the market situation characterized by an oversupply of isooctanol is expected to intensify. Furthermore, the supportive effect of rising raw material costs is insufficient to offset this trend. As a result, downward pressure on isooctanol prices is expected to be significant, and prices are projected to decline over the medium to long term.

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