On May 25, the international crude oil market experienced violent volatility, with oil prices plummeting by over 7% in a single day—a decline rarely seen in recent times. Specifically, Brent crude oil futures fell by $7.26 (7.02%), settling at $96.14 per barrel; meanwhile, U.S. WTI crude oil futures dropped by $6.30 (6.52%), closing at $90.30 per barrel. The primary catalyst behind this sharp decline was market optimism regarding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran, and the anticipated resumption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Although both parties have downplayed expectations of an immediate breakthrough—and despite the fact that any actual recovery in supply would entail a significant time lag—the rapid dissipation of the geopolitical risk premium directly triggered this substantial correction in oil prices.
PTA prices have trended downward, tracking declines in feedstock costs; market trading sentiment remains subdued, with activity largely driven by negotiations among traders. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the average market price in the East China region stood at 6,160 RMB/ton on May 26—a decrease of 0.52% compared to the previous trading day. From the perspective of supply-side fundamentals, an increasing number of PTA production units are undergoing maintenance shutdowns, driven by persistently squeezed processing margins and constraints on raw material supplies. Most recently, a 2.5-million-ton PTA facility in East China experienced an unplanned shutdown around May 24, with operations expected to remain suspended for approximately 7 to 10 days. As of May 21, the operating rate for PTA facilities hovered around 60%, falling below historical levels for this time of year. With PTA operating rates currently hovering near historical lows, market inventories are expected to undergo further depletion.
However, the terminal textile market is currently characterized by a pronounced off-season atmosphere and a shortage of orders; consequently, downstream manufacturers are operating on a strictly "on-demand" basis. In the domestic market, orders for summer fabrics are entering their final stages, prompting weaving enterprises to widely adopt a strategy of reducing operating loads and cutting production. Companies are maintaining strict control over raw material inventories, adhering to a strategy of "purchasing solely for immediate needs and ensuring rapid turnover," reflecting a generally cautious approach toward stock accumulation. Within the polyester sector—specifically regarding polyester filament and staple fiber—mainstream manufacturers have been compelled to passively reduce operating loads and cut production, dragged down by continuous inventory destocking in the weaving segment and a scarcity of orders for grey fabrics. Polyester bottle chips, however, are performing relatively well; coinciding with the peak consumption season for beverage packaging and an uptick in export demand, the industry's operating rate remains stable.
Looking ahead, support from the cost side is weakening; falling crude oil prices—coupled with a short-term inventory reduction process for PX that has fallen short of expectations—are increasing cost-side pressure and adding downward momentum to PTA prices. Downstream players are focusing primarily on restocking to meet immediate needs, maintaining a cautious stance regarding inventory accumulation, while persistently sluggish demand continues to drag down the market. Analysts at SunSirs anticipate that, in the short term, PTA prices will continue to exhibit a volatile yet generally weak trend.
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