In a report dated May 26, the European Commission projected that EU oilseed production—comprising rapeseed, sunflower seeds, and soybeans—for the 2026/27 marketing year would reach 32.55 million tonnes. This figure represents an upward revision of 220,000 tonnes (or 0.7%) compared to last month's forecast, and a 2.6% increase over the 2025/26 season.

The EU's upward revision of its 2026/27 oilseed production forecast suggests an expectation of ample rapeseed supplies. This is expected to drive an increase in the downstream supply of rapeseed meal, thereby exerting a generally bearish influence on rapeseed meal prices. On May 27, 2026, the closing price for the domestic benchmark rapeseed meal futures contract (contract 2609) stood at 2,286 RMB per tonne—a decline of 14 RMB per tonne from the previous trading day. Open interest surged significantly by 58,091 lots, indicating a marked increase in short positions; consequently, futures prices are facing short-term downward pressure.

The EU's upgraded oilseed production forecast is expected to heighten expectations regarding rapeseed availability. This, in turn, increases supply-side pressure on the raw material inputs for rapeseed oil, creating a slightly bearish outlook for rapeseed oil prices. On May 27, 2026, domestic rapeseed oil futures contracts for distant delivery months posted slight gains; however, overall price fluctuations remained limited, suggesting that this news had only a minor impact on market trading dynamics.

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