According to monitoring by SunSirs' Commodity Market Analysis System, the market for #1 tin ingots in the East China region rose during the period from May 18 to May 26. The average market price at the beginning of this period stood at 414,640 RMB/ton; by May 26, the average price had reached 424,170 RMB/ton, marking an increase of 2.30%.

Tin prices have executed a V-shaped reversal—characterized by a rapid bottoming-out, a single-day surge, and subsequent consolidation at a high level—once again climbing above the 424,000 RMB/ton mark. A confluence of three supply shocks—disruptions to shipments from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, hindered production recovery in Myanmar due to the rainy season, and expectations of tax reforms in Indonesia—has significantly amplified price elasticity against a backdrop of low inventory levels.

The supply side has emerged as the core engine of the current rally.

Democratic Republic of the Congo: A public health crisis has severed the transport route for the Bisie tin mine (which accounts for approximately 6.6% of global supply); the timeline for resuming production remains unclear.

Wa State, Myanmar: Following the rainy season and an earthquake, production has resumed at only 40–50% of pre-ban levels; imports in April saw a further month-on-month decline of 22%.

Indonesia: Exports in April plummeted 54% year-on-year; furthermore, a proposed increase in the royalty tax rate from 10% to 20% is expected to further dampen export activity.

On the demand side, rigid support remains evident: demand for solder in the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic, and AI server sectors continues to grow steadily. However, the spot premium for prices exceeding 425,000 RMB/ton has narrowed; downstream processing enterprises are once again exhibiting "price aversion," and the dampening effect of high prices cannot be overlooked.

Regarding inventory, global visible stocks remain at historically low levels (8,693 tons on the SHFE and 8,195 tons on the LME). This combination of "low inventory plus supply disruptions" has amplified the upside elasticity of prices.

Comprehensive Analysis

With short-term supply disruptions unlikely to be resolved soon, tin prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias within the range of 415,000 to 435,000 RMB/ton. Close attention should be paid to the progress of border reopenings in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the actual impact of the rainy season in Myanmar. In the medium term, the global tin reserves-to-production ratio stands at a mere 20.7 years; given this resource scarcity—compounded by growing demand for AI computing power—the fundamental logic driving an upward shift in the price center remains unchanged. However, caution is warranted: should production resumption in Myanmar accelerate faster than expected, or if downstream consumption experiences a significant contraction, tin prices could potentially retrace to test the 400,000 RMB threshold.

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