According to monitoring data from SunSirs, since the beginning of May, the soybean meal market has experienced mixed movements but has generally trended downward. On May 1, the average market price for soybean meal stood at 2,958 RMB/ton; by May 27, the average price had fallen to 2,928 RMB/ton—a decline of 1.01%.

Supply Side: May marked a peak period for the arrival of imported soybeans at domestic ports, with projected arrivals reaching as high as 10 to 11 million tons. With this concentrated influx of soybeans, oil mill operating rates have rebounded to over 60%, and inventories of both soybeans and soybean meal have entered an accumulation phase. Although the absolute level of soybean meal inventory is not currently considered high, the market generally anticipates that the rate of inventory accumulation will accelerate; consequently, an ample supply has emerged as the primary bearish factor weighing on prices.

Demand Side: Downstream demand from the feed sector remains sluggish. Independent hog farming operations (those that breed and raise their own stock) continue to operate at a loss (averaging a loss of 200–450 RMB per head), while the inventory of breeding sows continues to decline. This situation has left feed demand lacking any significant growth momentum. Feed manufacturers are adopting a cautious procurement strategy—largely adhering to a "buy-as-needed" approach to cover only immediate requirements—which has made it difficult for demand to provide any effective upward pull on prices.

**Cost Side:** The Supply and Demand Report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in May was generally bullish; by lowering the projected ending stocks for the new U.S. soybean crop, the report provided underlying support for CBOT soybean futures prices, thereby driving up the import costs for domestic soybean meal. Furthermore, factors such as the appreciation of the Brazilian Real have kept the basis premiums for Brazilian soybeans at persistently high levels. This has maintained domestic import costs at an elevated plateau, effectively limiting the potential for any steep decline in soybean meal prices.

In Summary: Regarding the supply-demand balance, the volume of imported soybeans arriving in June is expected to remain substantial, keeping supply conditions relatively loose. While end-user demand remains weak, weather-related market themes persist, and the futures market exhibits strong upward momentum. From a technical perspective, it appears that the pace of decline in soybean meal prices is slowing in June, while the potential for future gains remains robust. Consequently, the soybean meal market in June is expected to trend primarily upward within a volatile range, with prices projected to fluctuate between 3,000 RMB/ton and 3,200 RMB/ton.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.