Since late May 2026, the domestic cement market has witnessed a new wave of widespread price increases. Various regions—including the Northeast, East China, and the Northwest—have successively issued price adjustment notices, with individual price hikes typically ranging from 20 to RMB50 per ton. This current round of price increases is not driven by demand; rather, it is collectively propelled by soaring coal costs, the pressure of industry-wide losses, and staggered production controls. Furthermore, safety inspections and rectifications at coal mines in Shanxi province have tightened fuel supplies, thereby further strengthening cost-side support for cement prices and quietly shifting the market landscape.

I. Spot Market Performance as of May 27

As of May 27, the national cement market exhibited characteristics of regional divergence, with the actual implementation of price hikes showing some weakness. Price increases were executed relatively smoothly in the Northwest and Northeast regions; however, in East China and the Central-South regions, actual transaction volumes showed limited follow-through. Along the Yangtze River, mainstream ex-barge prices remained stable within the 170–185 RMB/ton range, while prices at transit depots and ex-factory gates mostly fell within the 180–215 RMB/ton range; overall, prices remain at a low point for the year. The SunSirs Cement Benchmark Price held steady, reflecting a market state characterized by "upward price quotes but cautious actual sales." Downstream buyers focused primarily on purchasing to meet immediate, rigid demand, showing little inclination toward concentrated inventory replenishment.

II. The Link Between Shanxi Coal Mine Accidents and the Cement Supply Chain

Following recent safety accidents at coal mines in Shanxi province, the provincial authorities initiated a comprehensive safety self-inspection campaign. Consequently, as many as 73 coal mines—representing a massive production capacity—have suspended operations for self-inspection. This has resulted in a significant reduction in daily raw coal output, leading to a simultaneous short-term contraction in the supply of thermal coal and anthracite. The suspension of coal mine operations directly drove up spot coal prices; given that coal accounts for nearly 50% of cement production costs, every 100-yuan-per-ton increase in coal prices adds 10 to 13 yuan to the cost of producing a single ton of cement. For the cement industry—which was already teetering on the brink of profitability—rising fuel costs further squeezed profit margins. This pressure compelled regional cement producers to collectively raise prices to offset rising costs, serving as the most direct catalyst for the current wave of price increases.

III. Current Status of Domestic Capacity, Supply, and Weak Demand

The domestic cement industry possesses a massive total production capacity base, and the overall landscape of excess capacity remains unchanged. To alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand, many regions have implemented "peak-shifting" production schedules and output controls—involving the periodic shutdown or reduced operation of kilns—to actively curtail market supply. However, downstream demand remains persistently weak; new real estate starts and development investments have declined sharply year-on-year, dragging down overall cement consumption. Although infrastructure projects provide some downside support, they are insufficient to offset the drag from the real estate sector, resulting in an industry imbalance characterized by strict capacity controls alongside subdued demand. On the international front, the volume of cement trade is relatively small; consequently, imports and exports have a limited impact on the overall domestic supply-demand balance, and market dynamics remain primarily driven by domestic fundamentals.

IV. April Import/Export and Inventory Situation

According to customs data, domestic imports of cement and clinker remained at a low level in April, edging down slightly year-on-year, with limited supplementary supply coming from low-priced overseas sources. Exports saw a slight year-on-year increase, primarily flowing to neighboring regions with robust infrastructure demand; however, the overall scale of this trade remains too small to alter the domestic supply-demand landscape. Currently, both nationwide social inventories (market-wide stocks) and enterprise inventories of cement and clinker are situated at moderately high levels. As the industry enters its traditional "off-season," the pressure of accumulating inventory has become apparent. These elevated inventory levels are dampening the extent to which price hikes can be successfully implemented; even when manufacturers issue formal price-hike notices, actual transaction prices frequently involve concessions.

V. Core Factors Influencing Cement Price Fluctuations

Bullish Factors: Production halts at coal mines in Shanxi province have driven up coal prices, providing strong support to the cost side of the industry; widespread losses across the sector have intensified enterprises' resolve to defend current price levels and push for increases; and strict enforcement of peak-shifting production controls in many regions has actively curtailed supply, thereby alleviating pressure from excess capacity.

Bearish Factors: Real estate demand remains persistently sluggish, resulting in the absence of the customary market rally typically associated with the traditional peak season; southern regions are gradually entering the rainy season, slowing down outdoor construction activities and further cooling off terminal-market purchasing; and high industry inventory levels—coupled with an ample supply of goods in the market—create significant resistance to the successful implementation of price hikes.

VI. Upstream/Downstream Prices and Sales

Upstream spot prices for thermal coal continue to trade at elevated levels—marking a significant year-on-year increase—thereby continuously driving up cement production costs. Clinker prices have risen in tandem, providing supportive momentum for cement pricing. Downstream prices for sand, gravel, and concrete remain stable; end-user construction sites are procuring strictly on an as-needed basis, resulting in lackluster transaction volumes. Overall sales lack momentum, making it difficult to pass on the benefits of price hikes further up the supply chain. The industry chain currently faces a transmission impasse characterized by strong cost pressures juxtaposed with weak demand.

VII. Outlook and Forecast

In the short term, elevated coal prices—combined with a strong willingness among enterprises to defend price levels—suggest that cement quotations still have room for upward adjustment. However, constrained by the rainy season, the traditional off-peak season, and high inventory levels, the actual magnitude of realized price increases is expected to be limited. The market is projected to generally maintain a pattern of low-level fluctuation with only marginal upward shifts in select areas. Furthermore, the weakness in the real estate sector and the slowdown in construction activity during the rainy season will continue to dominate demand dynamics, making it unlikely that the cement market will experience any significant, sustained upward trend.

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