In April 2026, cyclohexane export volumes climbed significantly year-on-year, with a concentrated release of overseas orders emerging as a key highlight for the industry. This surge in exports was primarily driven by a restructuring of the global supply-demand landscape and the growing prominence of domestic cost advantages; however, the incremental export volume was insufficient to fully offset domestic supply pressures. Since May, the cyclohexane spot market has followed a "stable-then-weak" trajectory; the benchmark price tracked by SunSirs has retreated slightly. The stark contrast between ample domestic production capacity—coupled with high inventory levels—and sluggish downstream demand has stifled upward price momentum. In the short term, prices are expected to remain in a weak consolidation phase, while medium-to-long-term trends will hinge on a recovery in demand and the sustainability of export growth.

I. Substantial Export Growth in April: Three Factors Drive Surge in Overseas Orders

Customs data indicates that in April 2026, cyclohexane export volumes witnessed a significant year-on-year increase, alongside a marked month-on-month improvement, signaling an explosive growth trend in the export market. Three core factors drove this surge: First, contracting overseas supply: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East led to underutilization of refining and chemical facilities in parts of Asia and Europe, widening the global cyclohexane supply gap and prompting overseas buyers to turn to China. Second, domestic cost advantages: With benzene prices trading at low levels, domestic cyclohexane production costs fell below international market rates, thereby highlighting China's price competitiveness. Third, upgrading demand structure: The expansion of the coatings and synthetic fiber industries across Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East triggered a surge in demand for industrial-grade cyclohexane; given the stable quality and abundant supply of Chinese products, China emerged as the preferred sourcing destination.

While this surge in exports effectively diverted a portion of domestic supply, cyclohexane import volumes also saw a slight year-on-year increase in April; consequently, the overall net export volume remained limited, proving insufficient to fundamentally alleviate domestic supply pressures.

II. Ample Domestic Capacity and High Operating Rates: Supply Remains Abundant

China stands as a major global producer of cyclohexane, with a total production capacity estimated at approximately 2.6 million tons per annum in 2026. The East and North China regions serve as the core production hubs, accounting for over 90% of the national output. From January through April, domestic cyclohexane production grew steadily, with the average operating rate of production facilities hovering between 75% and 80%. With large-scale facilities running at full capacity, the supply side of the market remains consistently abundant. There are no plans for large-scale maintenance shutdowns in April and May; only a few facilities are scheduled for brief maintenance stops. Consequently, overall operating rates remain high, and spot market supply is abundant.

Although export volumes have shown significant growth, the sheer scale of domestic production capacity means that exports account for less than 10% of total output. As a result, their impact on the overall supply landscape is limited, and the domestic market remains in a state of oversupply.

III. May 26 Spot Market Performance: Volatile with a Downward Bias; Upstream and Downstream Prices Decline in Tandem

On May 26, the benchmark price for cyclohexane, as tracked by SunSirs, stood at 7,383.33 RMB/ton—a decline of 1.77% compared to early May—reflecting a volatile, downward trend throughout the month.

Mainstream quotes in the East China market ranged from 7,300 to 7,400 RMB/ton, while those in North China ranged from 7,350 to 7,450 RMB/ton. These figures represent a 2% to 3% decline compared to late April. Spot market trading was sluggish, driven primarily by immediate, rigid demand; traders demonstrated an increased willingness to offload inventory, leading to a continued softening of quoted prices.

Prices for both upstream and downstream products declined in tandem. Upstream, the average spot price for the raw material pure benzene stood at 6,800 RMB/ton, having fallen by over 5% in May; this indicates a significant weakening of cost-side support. Downstream products—caprolactam and adipic acid—faced price pressure. Operating rates for these sectors remained between 70% and 75%, but a shortage of orders meant that purchases of cyclohexane were limited to immediate, rigid requirements, with little incentive for inventory replenishment. Demand from the coatings and solvents industries also remained sluggish, causing their prices to track the decline of cyclohexane and demonstrating a smooth transmission of price trends across the entire industrial chain.

IV. Imports, Exports, and Inventory: Exports Rise, Imports Stabilize, Inventory Remains Elevated

In April, cyclohexane exports surged significantly year-on-year, with major destinations including Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. Import volumes saw a modest year-on-year increase, with supplies primarily sourced from South Korea and Japan; domestic demand for high-end grades of cyclohexane continues to rely on imports for fulfillment. For the period from January to April, cumulative export volumes grew by over 40% year-on-year, while cumulative import volumes grew by 5%. This trend marks the preliminary emergence of a net-export market structure, albeit on a relatively small scale.

Regarding inventory, as of May 25, stocks at East China ports totaled approximately 12,000 tons. Inventory levels held by individual enterprises were generally elevated, placing the overall market inventory at one of its highest levels in recent years. High inventory levels, compounded by ample supply, have intensified the pressure on traders to offload stock; consequently, their willingness to cut prices and offer promotions has increased, further suppressing spot market prices.

V. Key Factors Influencing Price Fluctuations: Supply and Demand Dominate; Cost Factors Play a Supporting Role

Bullish Factors

- Export Growth: Robust overseas demand is driving sustained growth in exports, thereby absorbing a portion of the domestic supply.

- Cost Support: Pure benzene prices have stabilized at a low level; should they rebound in the future, the cost side will provide underlying support.

- High-End Demand: Demand for electronic-grade cyclohexane is growing rapidly, and its price remains stable, thereby driving structural optimization within the industry.

 Bearish Factors

- Oversupply: Domestic production capacity is ample, operating rates remain high, and spot market supply is abundant; the market is clearly characterized by an excess of supply over demand.

- Weak Demand: Demand from downstream sectors—such as nylon and coatings—remains sluggish; essential demand is insufficient, and there is a lack of momentum to stimulate the market.

- Elevated Inventory: Inventory levels are high at both ports and manufacturing facilities; traders face significant pressure to offload stock and therefore have little incentive to hold out for higher prices.

- Declining Costs: Falling pure benzene prices have eroded cost-side support, providing manufacturers with greater room to lower their selling prices.

VI. Market Outlook: Short-Term Weakness and Volatility; Medium-to-Long Term Hinges on Demand and Exports

On the supply side, plant operating rates remain stable while inventory levels remain elevated, ensuring that supply-side pressure persists. On the demand side, traditional downstream industries are entering their off-season; with essential demand remaining weak, prices are more prone to falling than rising. Regarding exports, overseas demand remains stable, yet the potential for further growth is limited, making it difficult to fundamentally alter the prevailing domestic market landscape.

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