Last Week's Price Trends (May 19–22)

Last week, the overall market for polyester filament yarn exhibited a pattern of "outward stability with underlying weakness" and narrow-range fluctuation. Spot price quotes remained at a stalemate, while discounts on actual transactions widened, resulting in a slight downward shift in the overall price center.

1. Mainstream Spot Prices (Jiangsu/Zhejiang/Shengze; RMB/ton)

POY 150D/48F: 8,500–8,600 → 8,400–8,500 (Weekly decline: 50–100)

FDY 150D/96F: 8,900–9,000 → 8,800–8,900 (Weekly decline: 50–100)

DTY 150D/48F: 9,700–9,800 → 9,600–9,700 (Weekly decline: 50–100)

2. Market Trends and Dynamics

Monday (May 18): Crude oil rebounded; manufacturers narrowed price concessions by 50 RMB/ton. Quoted prices remained stable, though trading volume was light; FDY 75D was quoted at 7,650 RMB/ton.

Tuesday (May 19): Production-to-sales ratios remained sluggish (hovering at 30–40% in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region). Manufacturers resorted to covert price reductions to facilitate sales; actual transaction prices for FDY 150D stood at 8,975 RMB/ton—marking a cumulative weekly decline of 75 RMB/ton.

Wednesday–Thursday (May 20–21): The market witnessed a tug-of-war between efforts to hold prices firm and the need to destock. Quoted prices held steady, but price concessions were expanded. POY traded at 7,200–7,400 RMB/ton for cash payments, with increased rebates offered for bulk purchases.

Friday (May 22): Official list prices remained unchanged, while actual transaction prices were negotiated on a case-by-case basis. DTY saw the most significant price concessions due to high inventory levels within the texturizing sector. Throughout the day, production-to-sales ratios hovered between 30% and 40%, with market activity driven primarily by immediate, essential demand.

Core Market Analysis

1. Cost Side: Crude Oil Remains Firm, Though Cost Pass-Through Is Inefficient; Support Found at the Bottom

International crude oil prices are fluctuating at elevated levels due to geopolitical conflicts (WTI: $102–$105/barrel). PTA prices have stabilized within the 6,300–6,400 RMB/ton range, thereby limiting the potential for any significant downside.

Polyester Profit Recovery: Cash flow margins for POY and FDY currently stand at 150–250 RMB/ton, while DTY is incurring a slight loss; consequently, manufacturers are reluctant to implement substantial price cuts.

2. Demand Side: Traditional Off-Season—Weak Orders, Driven Primarily by Essential Needs (Key Bearish Factor)

Weaving Sector Off-Season: Operating rates stand at 60%–65% (down 10 percentage points year-on-year); finished goods inventories are accumulating, and new orders remain insufficient.

Weak Domestic and International Demand: The peak season for domestic sales is drawing to a close, while foreign trade orders are constrained by high shipping costs and cautious procurement attitudes. Downstream buyers are adhering to a "buy on the rise, hold off on the fall" strategy, replenishing only 1–2 days' worth of essential inventory.

Persistent Sluggishness in Production and Sales: Throughout the week, overall production-to-sales ratios hovered between 30% and 50%; bulk transactions were scarce, with the DTY segment performing the worst.

3. Supply Side: Production Cuts Persist, Yet Inventory Remains High—Significant Pressure to Destock

Execution of Production Cuts: Industry leaders have implemented production cuts of 30% (effective through the end of June); the DTY segment has followed suit, driving operating rates to a three-year low.

Inventory Pressure: Industry-wide inventory levels are hovering near a six-year high. With destocking proceeding slowly, the practice of offering "stealth price cuts" to facilitate sales has become the prevailing market trend.

4. Market Sentiment: The Awkward Equilibrium of "Rising Prices Find No Demand, Falling Prices Are Unaffordable"

Strong Resolve to Hold Prices: Teetering on the brink of loss, posted prices are unlikely to fall.

Intense Pressure to Move Inventory: Under the strain of high stock levels, price concessions on actual orders—or "stealth price cuts"—have become widespread.

Short-Term Outlook (Late May – Early June)

Trend Forecast: Predominantly characterized by narrow-range fluctuations and weak stability; mainstream price movements are expected to remain within ±50 RMB/ton, with significant surges or sharp declines unlikely.

Key Price Levels: POY 8300–8400 RMB/ton, FDY 8700–8800 RMB/ton, DTY 9500–9600 RMB/ton (representing short-term bottoms).

Core Variables: Crude oil price fluctuations, downstream inventory replenishment, and the extent of production cuts by manufacturers.

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