Price Trend

According to statistics from SunSirs, seamless tube prices remained stable last week. As of the end of the week, the price for 20# (108*4.5) seamless tubes was quoted at 4,112 RMB/ton—unchanged from the beginning of the week and down 0.01% year-on-year.

Market analysis

Last week, the tube billet market retreated from its highs, trending narrowly downward; consequently, cost-side support for seamless tubes weakened further, shifting from a high-level floor to merely weak support. Ex-factory quotes for 20# hot-rolled tube billets ranged from 3,380 to 3,480 RMB/ton.

Last week, iron ore futures experienced volatile fluctuations, retreating from recent highs; spot prices at ports saw a slight downward adjustment, and cost support for steelmaking began to soften. While spot coke prices remained stable, coke futures traded with a weak bias, resulting in an overall downward shift in the cost base for raw materials. Tube billet manufacturers faced a decline in order volumes and a slight accumulation of inventory; compounded by reduced purchasing enthusiasm among downstream tube mills, these firms demonstrated an increased willingness to offer price concessions in order to move inventory. Consequently, the raw materials market as a whole exhibited a trend of easing from high levels and operating under weak conditions.

Futures contracts in the ferrous sector have traded with volatility and a downward bias. Raw material costs, previously at elevated levels, have begun to ease, while downstream end-user demand remains at normalized levels. The inclination toward concentrated inventory restocking has subsided; consequently, market procurement is currently driven primarily by immediate necessities and proceeds at a slower pace. Both tube manufacturers and traders have shown diminished willingness to hold up prices, adjusting their quotes narrowly in line with prevailing market conditions. Across the country, prices in mainstream markets remain generally stable but weak, with slight softening observed in select localized areas.

Market outlook

Overall, the market is currently in a dynamic phase characterized by weak supply and demand, where bearish forces hold a slight advantage. On one hand, steady progress in infrastructure investment and persistent expectations of a manufacturing sector recovery—coupled with high-level support from tube billet costs—serve to limit the potential for significant price declines. On the other hand, downstream end-user demand has normalized, and market tolerance for high prices remains low; consequently, there is a lack of impetus for concentrated inventory restocking. This situation, compounded by a softening in raw material costs, leaves prices lacking the momentum for any substantial upward movement. Amidst this tug-of-war between supply and demand, there is no fundamental basis for significant price volatility; as a result, seamless tube prices are generally expected to remain weak but stable.

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