Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has released its May Supply and Demand Report. For the 2026/27 marketing year, the forecast for rapeseed ending stocks has been revised upward from the 1.064 million tonnes projected last month to 1.319 million tonnes. Concurrently, the forecast for rapeseed ending stocks in the 2025/26 marketing year has been lowered by 45,000 tonnes, bringing it to 2.72 million tonnes.

With AAFC's May report raising the 2026/27 rapeseed ending stocks estimate by 255,000 tonnes, expectations point to an ample supply of rapeseed. Consequently, the cost-side support for rapeseed meal—a downstream product of rapeseed—has weakened. On May 22, 2026, the closing price for the benchmark September 2026 (2609) rapeseed meal futures contract stood at 2,337 yuan per tonne, a decline of 14 yuan per tonne from the previous trading day; short-term prices remain under pressure, signaling a bearish outlook.

As AAFC raises its forecast for 2026/27 rapeseed ending stocks, the expectation of ample rapeseed supply persists. For rapeseed oil—a core downstream product of rapeseed—cost-side support has diminished. With supply and demand expectations leaning toward a looser market balance, both spot and futures prices face downward pressure, pointing to a bearish market sentiment.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.